Weekly Market Update 4/24/2025

Here is your weekly market update from the Garden City Co-op Grain Origination Team.

Trivia

1. Which freezes faster: hot or cold water?

2. In 1776, the United States declared its independence from what country?

Answers at the bottom.

Market News

TARIFF UPDATE: The White House continues to suggest that they are making progress in trade negotiations with several of the countries that have requested negotiations to reduce reciprocal tariffs. Specifically, it’s been implied that they are very close to making a deal with India. It is expected that once we strike a deal with a major country, some of the others will follow suit. Despite indications from the White House that the U.S. and China will have a trade deal, China denies that there have been any trade talks. They are calling for all “unilateral” U.S. tariffs to be cancelled before working towards any kind of deal, while the Trump administration considers lowering tariffs on imported Chinese goods from their current level of 145% to possibly 50-60% according to Reuters. For now, it seems, we stay in the same old headline-to-headline waiting game.


US DOLLAR INDEX: The U.S. dollar index has continued its downward slide, trading at the lowest levels since March 2022 this week at 97.92. Concerns over reciprocal tariffs seem to have led to a round of selling, only further fueled by the Trump administration’s recent criticism of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. The White House has indicated that they are exploring whether they can remove Powell, with Trump calling Powell “Mr. Too Late” and a “major loser” on Truth Social earlier this week. Withholding concerns about a weakening dollar’s effects on the economy at large, it can bode well for the competitiveness of U.S. commodities in the world market and is likely providing some kind of support for these markets.


CROP PROGRESS UPDATE: Winter wheat conditions decreased this week and represented 45% good/excellent across the US versus 47% last week. Kansas represented 41%, 39% from OK, and 27% out of TX. As of this week 12% of the United States’ corn crop has been planted, increased from 4% planted last week. Kansas is now 27% planted, 8% planted in Nebraska, and 69% planted in Texas. Rain moving through the Plains region in the latter half of this week will put a temporary halt to planting progress. Increased from 2% last week, soybeans are reported as 8% planted this week and sorghum is reported at 17% planted.

EXPORTS: Inspections saw positive outcomes, particularly for corn and wheat, which exceeded estimates. Soybeans finished within the estimated trading range, while the range remains non-existent for milo. Mexico and Japan are taking the most considerable portions of our corn exports, with China also showing some interest in soybeans, and the top shipment going to Egypt. Corn continues in sales, with another week of steady sales totaling 45.4 million bushels, falling within the upper range of estimates. Although this is slightly behind last week, it remains well above the 5-year average. Conversely, wheat sales reported net cancellations for the 2024/25 period, as unknown buyers switched out of purchases, and other sales were pushed to the 2025/26 period, leading to 372,000 metric tons being reported for the week. Export sales for soybeans and meal are at the lower end of the expected range, while oil sales are in the mid-range, so there’s not much excitement in that area. We hope to start positively and trade on both sides, especially if there's favorable news regarding trade or adverse reports. Lastly, milo had a minimal sales figure of 0.8 million bushels.



 

CHINA’S WEATHER CONCERNS: Key farming areas are raising concerns about upcoming crop yields, particularly as trade conflicts are impacting the country's imports. While it is still too early to assess the potential effects on production, there is time for conditions to improve. However, adverse weather conditions highlight the vulnerability of Beijing's focus on food security to natural elements. Emerging threats include challenges related to wheat, corn, and soybeans. A lack of moisture is affecting corn and soybean crops, leading authorities to urge timely irrigation to mitigate the expected water shortages. This situation is putting additional stress on the region's wheat, corn, and groundnut crops. Meanwhile, excessive rain in other areas designated for corn and soybeans has delayed preparations for spring planting.

WEATHER: Widespread rains throughout the region finally graced us last night into this morning; hopes are high as more remains in the forecast yet. The National Weather Service in Dodge City has issued a hazardous weather outlook as severe thunderstorms are possible throughout the remainder of the week. Skies are predicted to be partly cloudy with high temperatures ranging from the low-60s to mid-70s for your Thursday and Friday forecast. Friday evening brings with it a 60% chance of precipitation, with new rainfall amounts expected around a tenth of an inch – higher amounts likely in the event of a thunderstorm. Looking ahead to the weekend, chances of showers and thunderstorms remain. High temperatures on Sunday expected in the mid-80s. The area appears to clear up into the first part of next week, with mostly clear skies and temperatures ranging from the low-70s to mid-80s.

Trivia Answers

1. Great Britain

2. Thanks to the Mpemba effect, hot water freezes faster.