Weekly Market Update 8/18/22

Here is your weekly market update from the Garden City Co-op Grain Origination Team.

1. The sandwich is a favorite pastime meal of summer lunches, picnics, and just any old random day. Who was the sandwich named for? 

2. What is America's favorite sandwich?

Answers at the bottom.

Market News

• UN Secretary - General Antonio Guterres stated that there are signs that the global food market was beginning to stablize. This statement came after a meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyz Zelensky and in wake of an agreement between Russia and Ukraine to allow safe passage out of Ukrainian ports for merchant ships carrying grains and other food goods. Guterres stated that wheat prices dropped as much as 8% and the FAO food index fell by 9% in July. 

• Crude oil has taken a tumble and not seen $100/bbl in weeks. After hitting 6 month lows Wednesday, the EIA showed that US crude stocks fell 7.1 million barrels and US crude exports hit 5 million barrels per day (the highest on record). WTI Crude futures are currently trading just above $90/bbl.

• Friday's WASDE was pretty friendly for corn and wheat while beans were seeing some pressure. USDA pulled back corn yield estimates by 1.6 bpa to 175.4 with production down to 14.359 billion bushels. Soybeans on the other hand saw an ever so slight yield increase to 51.9 bpa and a 4.531 billion bushel production number. 

Weather

Cooler weather is on the horizon as the midwest looks to receive the cool down it has hoped for for weeks. Into the weekend temps look to stay in the low 90's and below for highs with lows in the 50's and 60's. Precipitation chancess still look favorable with 25-55% chances in the coming days.

Corn

Corn has been steadily down this week coming off of a bullish WASDE report Friday. The USDA cut acres by 100k and lowered yield to 175.4 bushels. Those were by far the biggest changes in the report and reasonably bullish numbers, but that changed quickly on the open of the overnights on Sunday. A cooler weather pattern settling in and precipitation being called for through out the corn belt over the next 2 weeks. This started the sell off and has continued through the week. The crop progress report couldn’t stop the momentum with traders looking for a 2% decline and only getting 1% down to 57% good to excellent. Kansas dropped 1% to 29% good to excellent. Export inspections were lack luster with 21.2 million bushels shipped, close to the bottom of trade estimates. China and Mexico were the top 2 destinations. Export sales were much of the same for old crop with 3.9 million bushels sold, new crop had decent sales of 29.5 million bushels. Top buyers were unknown aka China, Mexico, and China. Last Friday’s CFTC report showed managed money adding 12,141 contracts onto the current long of 142,062 contracts. With favorable forecasts in key growing areas over the next couple of weeks expect corn to continue its move down.

Wheat

Paris wheat taking a plunge today and taking KC wheat futures with it. Black Sea instability will still add some support to the wheat market but with safe passage being granted for many merchant ships carrying grains, markets are seeing some stabilization. Managed Money showed KC wheat holding a small long at about 8,000 contracts. Export inspections this week pegged all wheat at 13.7 mb, in line with the 10-week average, but lower than last week’s 23.4 million bushels. Export sales for the week were quite poor at 7.6 million bushels with analyst’s estimates ranging between 9.2 and 23.9 million bushels. This week’s crop progress report showed winter wheat harvest in the PNW lacking some as Idaho falls significantly behind pace at 28% harvested. Spring wheat harvest across the US showed a lull as well at 16% harvested versus 55% last year and the 35% average. Locally basis is flat for wheat.

Soybeans

Beans saw a bigger supply reported from the WASDE on Friday. Not what the bulls were looking for. Exports were lowered, yield was raised by .4 bushel per acre to 51.9 this along with a higher carry in saw supply up 36 million bushels. Throw on top the favorable weather and we are seeing red on the board. Crop progress pegged soybeans dropping 1% to 58% good to excellent still trailing the 5-year average of 61%. Kansas saw a big drop of 5% to 36% good to excellent. Inspections were ok with 27.4 million bushels shipped, China was far and away the top destination. Export sales saw old crop with 3.6 million bushels sold and new crop with 47.9 million bushels. China was the number one buyer. Managed money added 2,038 contracts to the existing long of 101,509 contracts. We could see a pull back in tomorrow report after this week’s trading. July NOPA crush numbers were released this week. 170.2 million bushels were crushed, below the 171.5 mbu trade estimate but well above 164.7 mbu in June and 155.1 mbu last July. Cumulative Sept-July crush stands at 1908.5 mbu, up from last year’s pace with the USDA looking for a 64 mbu entire year total crush rise in 21/22. Look for much of the same today from the markets, without any bullish headlines we are going to be dragged lowered.

Milo 

Milo saw 2.4 million bushels shipped with China the number one destination. Very light on export sales with 500k sold, China was also the top buyer. Crop conditions dropped 2% to 27% good to excellent well below the 5-year average of 61%. Kansas saw a drop of 5% week over week to 27% good to excellent. Basis saw some strength last week but has steadied out and remained firm this week.

Trivia Answers

1. The sandwich was named for politician John Montagu, the 4th Earl of Sandwich. 

2. According to YouGovAmerica, the favorite sandwich of people inthe U.S. is the grilled cheese, followed closely by the grilled chicken sandwich and the ever-classic turkey sandwich.