Weekly Market Update 4-4-24

Here is your weekly market update from the Garden City Co-op Grain Origination Team.

Trivia

1. Which U.S. state has a law preventing your chicken from crossing the road?

2. What sport is best known as the ‘king of sports’?

Answers at the bottom.

Market News

Export Inspections: The total amount of corn inspected for the current week was 56.4 million bushels, which is higher than estimated. Mexico and Japan are the top exporters, and the corn inspected for this week is on the pace needed. The amount of wheat inspected was 18.3 million bushels, which aligns with trade estimates. China was the primary buyer of HRW from the PNW and SRW from the Gulf, while the other players loaded boats from the PNW. Soybeans inspected were 15.2 million bushels, which is on the lower end of estimates but still on pace. Milo saw 8.3 million bushels inspected, well above the required number, with China being the most dependable destination.

Export Sales: Soybean sales have been disappointing this week, reported 7.1 million bushels. Although the pace of shipment remains steady, with 91% of the total already shipped, only 87% of the total has been booked. This means we are already 5% behind the average rate needed to meet the numbers as we head into the slower period of the year. Typically, from now until June, shipments' pace drops dramatically. This is not good news for the SA crop, as the river is essentially shut off to world markets, except for Europe and Africa, which are not regular high-volume destinations. As a result, demand for US exports is not projected to meet the USDA’s current number. Corn sales came in at 37.3 million bushels, the bottom end of the trade estimates, 400,000 bushels sold for new crop contracts with Japan, Mexico, and Columbia as top buyers. Old crop wheat sales were minimal, with cancellations from Mexico with 400,000 bushels reported. New crop sales exceeded estimates with 9.6 million bushels sold and led by S. Korea, the Philippines, and Thailand. Milo saw 400,000 bushels sold.

Bird Flu vs Cattle markets: Cattle prices attempted to recover but faced difficulty maintaining gains due to the circulation of new HPAI (High Pathogenic Avian Influenza) headlines. The uncertainty surrounding HPAI has led to fund selling and long liquidation. However, consumers should be confident in consuming milk or meat as the market is only waiting to stabilize. It will be soon that the virus is found in the beef herd, as testing has been increased in all species. Nonetheless, the market's reaction to the news is an overreaction when looking at the scientific evidence. Additionally, cash cattle news has been better than expected, and the futures are at a discount, which is a positive sign. We saw some moderate trade develop in the North yesterday at $187 live and $296 dressed, down $2 live and $3 dressed vs last week, with no material trade yet seen in the South. Expectations will also be lower there, though on an increasingly more positive basis to the lower-trending board.

Russian Exports denied: Russian authorities have temporarily halted grain exports on some of Aston's ships, one of the country's largest grain trading companies. This has caused concern in the industry since Russia is the world's top wheat exporter, and any disruptions to exports from the country can raise global prices. According to sources, the Russian agricultural watchdog still needs to provide some of Aston's ships with phytosanitary certificates to ensure the quality of the grain meets international standards. Aston denies delays and says they are fulfilling their obligations and coordinating closely with the watchdog and other relevant parties. In the first half of the 2023/24 marketing season, Aston exported over 2.7 million metric tons of grain, making it the third-largest exporter after Grain Gates and TD RIF. Rosselkhoznadzor recently proposed tightening control over phytosanitary conditions for grain intended for export following increased complaints from importing countries about Russian grain quality's non-compliance with quarantine requirements.



Weather

The weather forecast for this week predicts that the wind will blow at a speed of 20-30 mph. This could bring some good news in the form of moisture, with a 50% chance of precipitation on Tuesday and Wednesday. The temperatures will hover around the 80s during the weekend and into the week but will drop to the 60-70 range throughout the week.
 

 

Trivia Answers

1.  Georgia.
2.  Soccer.