Weekly Market Update 2-15-2024
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Here is your weekly market update from the Garden City Co-op Grain Origination Team.
Trivia
1. Which of these common flowers is grown as a crop to produce cooking oil?2. Which U.S. state is the only state to grow coffee beans?
Answers at the bottom.
Market News
Ag Outlook Forum: The USDA released their initial 2024-2025 crop estimates during their Ag Outlook Forum. Though the numbers are estimates, they have projected that the corn's acreage will be reduced. The estimated yield for corn is 181 bushels per acre, which is slightly higher than last year's 177.3. Interestingly, the overall demand for corn has risen by 150 million bushels, with increased demand for Feed, ethanol, and exports. However, despite this increase in demand, the carryout remains high at 2.532 billion bushels, which is not a positive sign for the market. On the other hand, the soybean outlook includes higher supplies, use, ending stocks, and lower prices compared to the previous year. With increased beginning stocks and production, soybean supplies are projected at 4.8 billion bushels, 8 percent higher than in 2023/24. Soybean production is projected at 4.5 billion bushels, 8 percent higher than the previous year. This assumes a weather-adjusted trend yield of 52.0 bushels per acre and a 4.2-million-acre increase in harvested area from 2023/24. The outlook for U.S. wheat is for increased supplies, more considerable total use, and higher ending stocks. U.S. wheat production is projected to be five percent above 2023/24 at 1,900 million bushels and would be the largest harvest in five years. Wheat yields increased and have changed to 49.5 bushels per acre vs 48.6 bushels per acre last year. Sorghum Yield (bu./ac.) increased by 69.2 bushels per acre vs. 52.0 bushels per acre LY.
Export inspections: At the beginning of this week, corn shipments were reported as 34.6 million bushels, which is on the higher end of the trade estimates inspected. Although this is an improvement from the prior week, the U.S. is still lagging its pace in meeting USDA estimates for the marketing year by approximately 4.7 million bushels. This may not seem like a significant difference, but when it compounds week over week, it can make a substantial impact. Mexico remains the leading country in exports, receiving almost half of this week's corn shipments. Additionally, they account for nearly half of the corn shipped this marketing year. Wheat inspections came in at 15.0 million bushels, and Mexico has once again become the top destination for shipped bushels. Soybean inspections were good, with a total of 48.7 million bushels inspected. The pace of inspections is close to what is needed to meet the current USDA number, but there may be some hurdles ahead. Milo has exceeded the 10-week average with 7.6 million bushels.
Export Sales: Export sales are meh; corn is seeing interest at these lows, but AGAIN, they’re the usual players, and we are still not generating the outside buying that will warrant a rally in this market. As for the corn numbers, we saw 51.4 million bushels sold, with 100,000 bushels of new crop sales, with Mexico and Columbia being the top buyers. Soybean sales were at 13.0 million bushels, with 900,000 bushels sold for new crops. Sales for wheat this week were okay, with 12.8 million bushels sold and 1.8 million bushels of recent crop sales. Milo -100,000 bushels reported & -2.4 million bushels new crop.
Weather
This week's weather is expected to be quite varied. Today, we'll see a mix of sun and clouds, but a cold front will move in overnight and bring a high of 38 degrees on Friday, with a chance of snow. Overnight lows will drop to 22 degrees. However, the start of the weekend will bring rising temperatures, reaching 40-50 degrees by Monday. As we move into next week, we can expect some spring vibes with highs in the high 50s and possibly even the 70s. Wind can also be expected, going 10-20 MPH this coming week.
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Trivia Answers
- Sunflower
- Hawaii