Weekly Market Update 7-25-24

Here is your weekly market update from the Garden City Co-op Grain Origination Team.

Trivia

1. How many colors are there in a rainbow?

2. What type of whale is actually a dolphin?

Answers at the bottom.

Market News

SPRING WHEAT TOUR: Days 1 and 2 of the Wheat Quality Council’s hard red spring wheat tour are in the books this week, with results further supporting the idea of a large spring wheat crop yet to come. The Council estimated yields in southern and east central North Dakota at 52.5 bushels per acre, up from 48.1 bushels for Day 1 last year and well above the 42.2 bushel five-year average. Day 2 yields from northwest and north-central North Dakota came in at 53.7 bushels per acre, up from 45.7 bushels last year and significantly above the 40.02 bushel five-year average. Yields from Day 2 are the best since at last 1994. These reports make it increasingly hard to paint a bullish picture for a wheat complex that has already felt like a dumpster fire for the last several weeks.

LIVESTOCK NEWS: China plans to help dairy and beef producers limit production to prevent further price drops, as meat consumption declines. Pork, beef, dairy, and poultry prices are falling due to reduced purchases linked to the economic slowdown. Wang Lejun, Chief Animal Husbandry Officer, said beef and milk prices fell by 12.1% and 12.5% respectively, causing losses for breeders. The aim is to optimize herd structure and match production with market demand.

In the first half of the year, the overall production of pork, beef, mutton, and poultry increased by 0.6% year-on-year. Egg production rose by 2.7%, and milk production increased by 3.4%. Beijing issued regulations to reduce the breeding sow population after an oversupply of pork led to heavy losses. In June, regulations were released to control beef cattle production. Pork prices have recovered due to a reduction in the pig herd, but beef and dairy prices are expected to remain low. China’s meat imports in the first half of 2024 have plunged 13.4% from a year ago, with pork and poultry imports taking the biggest hit.

EXPORT INSPECTIONS: Well below USDA trade estimates, a total of only 8.7 million bushels of wheat were exported this week. Leading the HRW exports this week, of the total 5.6 million bushels inspected this week, Mexico will be receiving 1.6 million bushels while Nigeria and Brazil take the second largest majorities coming in at 1.2 million bushels a piece. A total of 0.5 million bushels of HRS find their way to USDA inspections this week; with the whole amount traveling to Italy. Soft red wheat exports totaled 1.8 million bushels this week, with Mexico taking 1.3 million bushels in exports this week. Only 0.9 million bushels of white wheat made USDA inspections this week, with the full amount making its way to Japan; once again, no durum wheat exports were reported this week. 38.2 million bushels of corn met USDA inspections this week, falling below the running 10-week average. Leading the export markets again this week, 13.2 million bushels will be traveling to Mexico while the second largest amount, at 10.9 million bushels will be traveling to South Korea. A total of 12.0 million bushels of soybeans were inspected this week, while 2.7 million bushels of milo were inspected for exports.
 
EXPORT SALES: Making a comeback this week with total USDA estimates, O/C corn sales totaled 13.0 million bushels, with N/C sales recorded at 29.3 million bushels. 11.4 million bushels of O/C wheat were sold this week, right on track with USDA estimates with no N/C wheat sales reported again this week. A total of 3.3 million O/C soybean sales were reported this week, while N/C sales totaled 30.5 million bushels. Soybean sales were reported 2% below yearly USDA targets. This week, 0.1 million bushels of O/C milo were reported as sold, with no N/C sales recorded. Milo sales remain 2% above total yearly USDA targets.

WEATHER: Today is looking to be sunny, with a high near 94°F, with winds coming out of the south/southeast at 8 to 13 mph. Your Thursday night also appears to be clear with a low around 66°F. Friday is shaping up to be breezy, with winds at 13 to 22 mph and gusts as high as 32 mph possible. Friday evening still appears to remain clear, with a low temperature around 68°F. No chance of rain in the forecast this weekend, Saturday is expected to be mostly sunny with a high near 95°F. Sunday looks like a scorcher; starting off a trend of high temperatures for the week, with high temperatures anticipated around 102°F. Temperatures remain elevated throughout the remainder of the week with high temperatures expected to climb to around 107°F by Wednesday and remaining in the low 100s throughout the earlier part of the week as well. Evening temperatures are expected to remain around the low 70s with mostly clear skies expected.
 

Trivia Answers

1. Seven 

2. Orca