Weekly Market Update 9-12-24

Here is your weekly market update from the Garden City Co-op Grain Origination Team.

Trivia

1. What is the traditional Christmas plant in the U.S.?

2. What has a heart that doesn't beat?

Answers at the bottom.

Market News

CROP PROGRESS: Dry and warm weather in the Corn Belt over the past few weeks has quickly caused corn to mature and has led to a slightly earlier than usual start to the national corn harvest, according to the USDA NASS' weekly national Crop Progress report released on Monday. Current weather conditions are expected in the Corn Belt for the first half of the week. However, Tropical Storm Francine, forming in the Gulf of Mexico, may disrupt the weather later in the week, especially for southeastern farmers. In its first corn harvest report of the season, NASS estimated that 5% of corn had been harvested nationally, slightly ahead of last year's 4% and 2 points ahead of the five-year average of 3%. NASS estimated that 64% of the crop still in fields was in G/E condition, down 1 point from 65% the previous week but still above last year's 52%. Twelve percent of the crop was rated as poor to poor, unchanged from the previous week but below 18% last year. In Kansas, 41% of the crop was rated G/E, down 7% from the previous week but in line with the 5-year average of 41%. NASS estimated that 65% of soybeans were in G/E condition, unchanged from the previous week and above last year's rating of 52%. Kansas ratings were 55% G/E, down 5% from the previous week. The current sorghum crop condition is 48% nationally, consistent with the five-year average. In Kansas, the crop received a rating of 42%, marking a 4-point decrease from the previous week. The majority of the sorghum harvest, 21% nationally, has occurred in Texas, with 77% of the crop already harvested. In Kansas, only 2% of the sorghum has been harvested so far, lagging behind last year by 1 point.

 EXPORT INSPECTIONS: Total wheat inspections were reported at 21.6 million bushels this week; 2% above year-to-date inspections relative to the seasonal pace needed by the USDA to reach USDA target goals. Of the total wheat undergoing USDA inspection this week, HRW totaled 2.6 million bushels with the vast majority traveling via rail to Mexico and small amounts making their way to South Korea and Taiwan. Ramping up this week, HRS wheat inspections totaled 11.1 million bushels, with Nigeria and Taiwan leading the export markets. Soft red wheat inspections were reported at 3.8 million bushels this week, of that total, 3.4 million bushels will be making their way to Mexico as their final destination. Rounding out the wheat export markets this week, white wheat totaled 3.1 million bushels inspected and durum wheat was reported as 1.0 million bushels inspected. Down from previous weeks, inspected corn totaled 32.9 million bushels for exports; with 16.0 million bushels destined for Mexico. Falling below the running 10-week average, milo inspections totaled 0.1 million bushels this week.

EXPORT SALES: As we finally shift into the fall harvest swing, no N/C corn or soybean sales were reported this week, while O/C corn sales totaled 26.2 million bushels and O/C soybean sales were reported at 54.2 million bushels. Old crop wheat sales totaled 17.4 million bushels this week; likely following a slight shift in the wheat market prices. Of the 17.4 million bushels of wheat sold, 2.6 million bushels were reported as HRW, 8.6 million bushels reported as HRS wheat, 0.4 million bushels of SRW, 5.8 million bushels of white wheat, and no durum wheat sales were recorded. Milo sales totaled 2.8 million bushels this week; again, with no N/C sales reported.

SEPTEMBER WASDE: If you didn’t know there was a WASDE today, you might have missed it based on how uneventful it was. Mostly small changes were made across the board. With this report in the background, we are back to talking about harvest progress, South American weather, and the upcoming election. Here is your recap by commodity. CORN: 23/24 US carryout saw a decrease of 55 million bushels due to mostly increases in export demand and a small increase to food/seed/industrial demand. This was partially offset by a small increase to 24/25 corn yield to 183.6, raising production to 47 million bushels. Net result was a slight decrease to 24/25 US carryout at 2.057 billion bushels. World carryout also saw a decrease from last month to 308.35 MMT. SOYBEANS: 23/24 crush was increased by 5 million bushels, while 24/25 production was reduced by 3 million bushels. These were the big pieces of a 10 million bushel reduction to 24/25 US carryout to 550 billion bushels. World carryout increased slightly from August to 134.58 MMT. WHEAT: USDA called it in on this one, leaving the US balance sheet unchanged. World carryout saw a small increase to 257.33 MMT.



WEATHER: Seems like things are shaping up for another uneventful week for weather; the remainder of your Thursday is looking to be sunny with a high near 89°F, winds coming out of the south at 23 to 28 mph, with gusts possible up to 41 mph. This evening is expected to be mostly clear with a low temperature around 63°F. Friday the 13^th is expected to be sunny with a high near 95°F, while the evening hours will dip to temperatures in the upper-50s. We’re shaping up to have a sunny weekend; temperatures reaching the low-to mid-90s throughout the daytime hours and upper-50s to low-60s during the overnight hours. Moving into early next week, Monday and Tuesday are predicted by meteorologists to be breezy with a high near 92°F. Tuesday evening presents a 20% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms, with mostly clear skies and a temperature around 58°F. Rounding out our weekly forecast, Wednesday is looking to be sunny, with a high temperature near 91°F.

Trivia Answers

1. Poinsettia
2. An artichoke