Weekly Market Update 6-1-23

Jun 01, 2023












Here is your weekly market update from the Garden City Co-op Grain Origination Team.

Trivia

  1. What’s the title of the Van Morrison song which contains the lyrics – I’m contemplating moonlight on the water when I’m walking with you?

  2. On what date in June was D-Day? Bonus: What year?

Answers at the bottom.

Market News​

House lawmakers pass the debt ceiling bill. House lawmakers overwhelmingly agreed (314-117) yesterday to suspend the nation's debt celing for two years, heading off a government default. After lots of talks between White House negotiators and top House Republicans, President Biden and Speaker Kevin McCarthy reached a bipartisan compromise. The bill now will head to the Senate, where it is expected to have bipartisan support. The deal suspends the nation's borrowing limit until January 2025 and cuts federal spending by $1.5 trillion over a decade, according to the Congressional Budget Office.

Crop Progress Update: Corn: Planting progress took another jump forward with 92% of the corn crop planted across the U.S. well ahead of the 5-year average of 84%. The one state with planting concerns was North Dakota and those concerns/fears can be put to bed. North Dakota jumped 40% to 72% planted right in line with the 5-year average. Kansas slightly lags in planting progress at 82% compared to last year’s 85%. The U.S. corn crop condition came in at 69% good to excellent, just under the 5-year average of 72%. The 69% g/e was slightly below trade expectations of 71% as well. Kansas isn’t off to the strongest start with 52% good to excellent, but this should pick up with the current rains realized and more to come in future forecast. Soybeans: Bean planting continues to be full go with 83% of the U.S. crop planted and well ahead of the 5-year average of 65%. No surprise with the jump in planting progress with soybeans acres not nearly as high as previous years. Wheat: HRW crop condition saw a small 3% bump to 34% good to excellent. Not much of the current rains will save this crop unfortunately. Milo: Milo planting progress is starting to pick up steam with a 9% rise from last week. That currently put the U.S. at 42% of the crop planted. Kansas currently sits at 22% and ahead of the 5-year average of 17%. Crop condition for milo will be released in the following weeks as planting progress continues.

Recent Fed comments could signal a rate hike "skip" this month. Officials from the Federal Reserve are weighing the value of caution versus plenty of still strong inflation data. Philip Jefferson, Fed Governor and vice chair nominee, was speaking at a financial stability conference in Washington when he made comments that are being interpreted as a signal that a rate hike “skip” could occur in June. This would be viewed as a reversal from recent market expectations as investors are now suggesting a less than one in three chance of a June rate hike after having that probability at about two in three prior to Mr. Jefferson’s remarks. June 13-14 is the Fed’s next policy meeting.

Export Inspections Corn reported at 51.7 million bushels shipped in Tuesday's report, in the middle of the range of estiamtes and down half a million bushels from last week. Shipments of corn are 50.1 million bushels behind the pace needed to hit USDA's estimate for the year (see graphic below) and with only 14 weeks left and decrasing esport sales, the likelihood of meeting the USDA estimate diminishes each week. nMilo reported 1.3 million bushels shipped, the lowest total since the last week od March. Soybeans were reported at 8.8 million bushels, up from the previous week at 6.1 million but trailing behind the 10-week average of 17.9 million bushels. Weekly export inspections for wheat totaled 14.0 million bushels, meeting expectations and just above recent pace. Wheat is currently on track to end the marketing year just above the USDA projection. HRW shipments were reported at 5.5 million bushels, the highest since the end of April. This week's export sales report is delayed until tomorrow due to the holiday week.


Weather

Forecasts predict some precipitation for today and through the weekend with chances of isolated thunderstorms with good percentages. The latter part of next week has a chance of some moisture as well.  Cooler temps are settling in for the first part of June, with highs near 80 and the lows ranging in the 50s. Could be a bit breezy with windspeeds ranging from 10-20 MPH today and tomorrow.

Trivia Answers

  1. Evening in June

  2. June 6, 1944