Weekly Market Update 6-15-23

Jun 15, 2023












Here is your weekly market update from the Garden City Co-op Grain Origination Team.

Trivia

  1. Who was the last amateur golfer to win the US Open?

  2. Who was the youngest U.S. President?

Answers at the bottom.

Market News​

Kansas wheat harvest is kicking off. Yesterday was the first day of the Kansas Wheat Harvest Reports, with reports that harvest has started in parts of south central Kansas. Unsurprisingly, the reports are that harvest is getting a slow start due to scattered showers. Early indications in the area are heavy test weights and yields that are, while still poor, better than expected. Our draw area is also behind an normal pace, with none of our locations receiving any new crop wheat at this point. You can follow along with the progress of the Kansas Wheat Harvest at: kswheat.com

Export Inspections: Corn: Corn saw a decent week with 46 million bushels shipped, right in line with trade estimates. Inspections progress for corn is on par with USDA seasonal pace. Mexico was the leader in the clubhouse this week with 13.7 million bushels headed south of the border, Japan was close behind with 12.9 million bushels. Soybeans: Soybeans were a disappointment missing the mark for trade expectations. Total bushels shipped was 5.2 million with Mexico being the top destination again. Overall, for the year soybeans are 7% ahead of seasonal pace. Milo: Milo was status quo with 2.3 million bushels shipped, right at the 10-week average. China took delivery of 2 million bushels. Wheat: Wheat saw a total of 9.1 million bushels shipped, in range of trade estimates. White wheat was the top variety shipped with 5 million bushels. The Philippines were the top destination followed by Yemen. We are only 2 weeks into the 23/24 shipment year for wheat so a long way to go to meet the USDA seasonal pace expectations.

Export Sales: Corn: Old crop sales reported 10.8 million bushels sold with only 800k new crop sales (not good at all). Japan and Mexico were the top buyers. Seasonal pace has fallen flat, and we remain 6% behind expectations or close to 100 million bushels. Soybeans: Not a lot of excitement for beans this week with 17.6 million bushels of old crop sold and only 1.8 million bushels of new crop. Spain was the top buy this week with 8 million bushels. Mexico bought the majority of the new crop bushels. Soybeans are 4% behind USDA export estimates or 81.4 million bushels. The bigger story to watch with beans and corn as well is the new crop sales or lack thereof. With demand shrinking in the new crop window, it could make markets bearish as we approach fall harvest. Milo: 4.5 million bushels of old crop were sold with China being far and away the top buyer. Wheat: Sales for wheat were pitiful and below trade estimates. Only 6.1 million bushels were sold and HRW was the top variety at 2.6 million bushels. Mexico and Vietnam were the top buyers. As with most grains wheat sales are lagging 3% behind pace or 23.5 million bushels.

Fed pauses rate hikes but frames it as temporary. After 10 straight rate hikes over 15 months, the Fed voted 11-0 at their meeting yesterday to keep policy unchanged with a range of 5.00%-5.25%. Despite the pause in hikes, the Fed did make sure in their statement to add that policymakers will resume tightening as appropriate later in the year. New projections show Fed officials favoring an additional 50 basis points of tightening by the end of the year, alluding to two more rate hikes with just four meetings left.

Corn ratings fall again. Concerning at the beginning of the week with crop conditions, National corn crop ratings fell by three more points this week to 61% good/excellent, now down from 72% Last year and the 69% five-year average. However, for the state of Kansas the week-over-week increase was five points. Winter wheat condition nationally 38% good to excellent up 2% but, 8% below our 5-year average. Soybeans are underway with planting progress nationally 96% completed with positive progress week-over-week, soybean conditions dropped 3% to 59% good to excellent.


Weather

The weather market is in full swing this week, with rain forecasts not panning out for parts of the Corn Belt – pushing corn higher in the overnight and day sessions.  Warm and dry conditions continue for the area. Many argue that what happens in July is more crucial than here in the beginning of June, while others say that if the pattern doesn’t shift wetter we could quickly rival summer 2012. The Midwestern Corn Belt looks to be mostly dry for the remainder of the week, with better chances NW to SE across the Belt today and through the weekend.

Here in the plains we’ve been seeing moisture the last week, with some areas recording over an inch. Lately the name of the game has been cooler temperatures and high humidity. There are thunderstorms forecasted for today, with chances of severe winds, tornados, and hail. The upcoming week looks a bit breezy, with high temperatures near 90 degrees and lows in the 60s. There are chances of some more moisture towards the end of the coming week.

Trivia Answers

  1. Johnny Goodman (1933)

  2. Theodore Roosevelt (42 years old)