Weekly Market Update 11-2-23

Nov 02, 2023


Here is your weekly market update from the Garden City Co-op Grain Origination Team.

Trivia

  1. ​Prior to 2023, what year did the Texas Rangers last make a World Series appearance?

  2. How many innings was the longest game in World Series history?

Answers at the bottom.

Market News​

Interest Rate Market Update: With another unanimous vote, the Fed passed it 12-0 to keep rates unchanged for another consecutive meeting. Some could make the argument that the Fed seems dovish about interest rates, even if Powell wants to sound hawkish commenting “It’s fair to say that that’s the question we’re asking – should we hike more?”. Fed Chair Powell commented that progress towards 2% inflation, labor market getting back into better balance, and broader financial conditions will drive policy going forward.

Export Inspections This week's book of exports shows promising effects from the river rising to normal levels, with basis increases and full capacity barges. Even though export demand is not where we would like it to be, here is what we have: Soybeans had 69.5 million bushels inspected and shipped, down from last week’s 96.5 million bushels but still above the pace required by USDA estimates. Corn export inspections were okay with 20.9 million bushels, which is better than the previous week’s numbers and towards the higher end of the estimates. Mexico is the leading destination. Wheat exports of 7.0 million bushels continue at a terrible pace, with most of their landing spots in the Philippines, Chile, and some parts of Asia. Milo had 2.6 million bushels shipped.

Export Sales Export corn sales were at 29.5 million bushels, still towards the lower end of the estimated range. It’s still behind the 5-year average and leaves us behind the pace needed to meet the current sales goal, with an additional 500,000 bushels of new crop sold. Soybean sales were below expectations, with only 37.1 million bushels sold and no new crop contracts. Export sales for wheat did not meet the estimates, with only 10.1 million bushels reported. However, there was some good news for milo, with sales of 14.9 million bushels, up from 7.5 million the previous week.

StoneX November Yield Survey StoneX released their November yield survey yesterday, which is based on surveyed results from their customers. Corn yields were raised slightly to 175.7 bpa, up from 175.5 bpa in their October estimate. Decreases in the western Corn Belt were more than offset by increases in Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio. USDA's current estimate is at 173 bpa. Bean yields were down slightly from their October estimate to 50.3 bpa. USDA is currently sitting at 49.6 bpa. State-by-state results can be found in the graphic below. We will get an updated round of estimates from USDA in the November WASDE that's slated for next Thursday, November 9th.


 

Weather

Warm temperatures are on the horizon for the foreseeable future, with highs in the upper 50s to 70s through even the extended forecast. Nighttime lows are expected to remain above freezing for this week and next. Chances for moisture are pretty much nonexistent.

Trivia Answers

  1. 2010

  2. 18 innings (LA Dodgers vs. Boston Red Sox, Game 3 in 2018)