Weekly Market Update 10-5-23

Oct 05, 2023












Here is your weekly market update from the Garden City Co-op Grain Origination Team.

Trivia

  1. What major city is located on two continents? Hint: The continents are Asia and Europe.

  2. In which American state was the first McDonald's opened?

Answers at the bottom.

Market News​

Outside Markets Stocks are slightly lower today as the market awaits key jobs data tomorrow that could signal the next move for interest rates. On Friday the September jobs report will come out, with signs from recent data pointing towards a cooling labor market. This could prompt the Fed to think twice about raising borrowing costs again at their next meeting. Oil prices also lower today, amid market concerns that a global economic slowdown could hurt demand, even with an OPEC+ decision to maintain oil output cuts. Brent crude is down about $10/barrel in less than 10 days after getting close to $100 in late September. The percentage drop in the last two days is the steepest the market has seen since May.

Harvest Progress The crop progress report showed harvest picking up steam before this last shot of rain a few days ago. The U.S. corn crop is at 23% harvested ahead of the 5-year average of 21% and up from last week’s 15%. Kansas saw one of the bigger jumps in corn harvested coming in at 51% complete compared to last week’s 38%. Most states through the mid and upper Midwest are all ahead of 5-year averages. Soybeans in the U.S. were also seen at 23% harvested up from 12% complete last week. Kansas saw a 13% bump in beans harvested bring the state to 24% harvested. Soybeans have a similar story to corn with most of the mid and Midwest seeing a significant jump week-over-week.

Exports Export inspections for corn this week fell within the middle range of the trade estimates, with 24.6 million bushels shipped over the past week. This is consistent with the current USDA export estimate. Soybeans inspected this week totaled 24.4 million bushels, and wheat and milo shipments were 14.6 million bushels and 2.4 million bushels, respectively. However, the Mississippi River is currently experiencing low water levels, which is causing concern for soybean exports, basis levels and freight costs. Unfortunately, the forecasts for the area are not looking good for the next 8-16 days. Due to lower prices, flash sales of corn to Mexico via rail are advantageous. The U.S. has also sold soybeans and wheat to China in flash sales, which hopefully could be a sign of things to come. Despite routine buying and business, corn sales are slightly behind last year's pace and soybeans remain off as well. Export demand is minimal and lackluster. In the current week, 71.5 million bushels of corn were sold, with 24.1 million new crop sales. Soybeans sold 29.7 million bushels, with 0.0 new crop sales, while wheat sold 10 million bushels and milo sold 9.4 million bushels. There are no new crop sales to be reported for either wheat or milo.

Weather

These cooler temperatures have been such a nice change and look like they're going to hang around for awhile. Daytime highs for the next week are in the 70s and 80s, with tomorrow sticking out as particularly cool with highs in the low 60s and lows touching freezing temperatures in some places. The next several days are forecasted to be mostly dry and less windy, but chances for rain creep back into the forecast late next week.

Trivia Answers

  1. Istanbul, Turkey

  2. California (San Bernadino, to be more specific)