Weekly Market Update 9-14-23

Sep 14, 2023












Here is your weekly market update from the Garden City Co-op Grain Origination Team.

Trivia

  1. In what country did the first Starbucks open outside of North America?

  2. Who was the first televised U.S. President?

Answers at the bottom.

Market News​

ADM Fire Scary news out of Illinois over the weekend, as an explosion and fire broke out at an ADM soybean and corn processing plant in Decatur. Eight employees were injured and several structures were severely damaged in the blast. This particular plant houses a soybean crush plant and one of the largest ethanol plants in the world, producing up to 375 million gallons of ethanol annually. Given the size of the plant, a prolonged outage will certainly put downward pressure on cash basis in the area that could have a ripple effect across parts of the Corn Belt. ADM says that the plant is "temporarily down until [they] can safely resume operations."

Export Inspections This week corn was reported at 24.6 million bushels shipped, up 5.6 million bushels from the previous week.  China and Mexico are taking the lump of corn this week and staying in line with the pace needed to hit USDA projections. Soybeans shipped 11.4 million bushels, down 3.6 million bushels from the week before. Wheat shipped 14.9 million bushels, ahead of last week and within the range of trade estimates. Milo was ahead of its previous week at 5.3 million bushels shipped. Export Sales To kick off the marketing year, corn reported 29.7 million old crop bushels of export sales and 1.0 million bushels of new crop. Soybeans were on the lower side of estimates at 25.9 million bushels sold, with no new crop sales reported. 16.1 mln bushels of wheat sold, right in the middle of the range of estimates, with no reported new crop sales. Milo reported at 2.7 million bushels of old crop this week.

September WASDE Corn bulls got the yield reduction they were hoping to see dropping from 175.1bpa to 173.8bpa, but this was offset by  harvested acres getting an increase and ultimately seeing a 23-million-bushel net gain in production. Market wise after processing these numbers bulls have to be bullish South American weather for any rally to be substantial. Soybeans saw a reduction of .8bpa and 10k acres increase for a net loss in production of 59 million bushels. A chunk of this drop was offset by a 35-million-bushel reduction to exports. Overall, we are at a 220-million-bushel carryout with balance sheet remaining tight though harvest. The big story with wheat was seeing 7mmt cut from worldwide stocks, mostly coming from EU, Argentina, and Australia. This is a good-sized cut when the world wheat picture is touchy enough. Milo saw lots of moving parts but in general little change. Acres are up 400k but a 5.3bpa cut to yield netted a 12-million-bushel loss in production. This was offset by a 10-million-bushel drop in feed for a final change of 2 million bushels tighter. Check out the table below for specifics.



Weather

Welcome rains fell across southwest Kansas this past weekend, with some of our draw area reporting over 3" of precipitation. Decent chances for more showers are forecasted today and tomorrow, with expectations turning drier for most of next week. These cooler temperatures have been a nice reprieve from the heat and look to stick around, with highs in the 70s and 80s for the foreseeable future.

Trivia Answers

  1. Japan

  2. Franklin D. Roosevelt​