Weekly Market Update 8-22-24

Here is your weekly market update from the Garden City Co-op Grain Origination Team.

Trivia

1. Which month of the year is National Ice Cream month?

2. What is the name of Elvis Presley’s Memphis home?

Answers at the bottom.

Market News

RAILROAD CRISIS: Canada's two major freight railroads have stopped operating, affected 9,000 Teamsters union members, and potentially caused disruptions to the Canadian and US economies. The shutdown could impact industries like agriculture, automotive, home building, and energy, highlighting the close economic relationship between the two nations. This is the first time both major Canadian railroads have simultaneously shut down due to a labor dispute initiated by the management, which is different from a traditional strike. The shutdown serves as a reminder of the two nations' economies and how many industries rely on the free movement of goods across the border for efficient operations.

CROP TOUR 2024: On the third day of the 2024 Pro Farmer Crop Tour, scouts had high expectations. Although the crop didn't fully meet those expectations, there were still significant increases over 2023, especially in soybeans. Iowa is expected to achieve record-high yields due to timely rains contributing to moisture levels. In District 1, there is an estimated 3.28% decrease in yield compared to last year, with a corn yield estimate of 176.59 Bu/acre. District 4 slightly increased 2.24% from last year, with a corn yield estimate of 195.86 Bu/acre. In District 7, this year's yield estimate is 3.65% higher than in 2023 and 4.31% higher than the three-year average, at 191.59 Bu/acre.

Soybeans in western Iowa have been impressive this week, with minimal pests and weed pressure leading to significant increases in pod production compared to last year. District 1 pod counts are estimated at 1,108.76 in a 3x3 square, a 2.5% decrease from 2023, while District 4 saw an 11.94% increase from last year. District 7 also showed a 16.74% increase from the previous year. If this trend continues, the soybean harvest will be successful.

The USDA's yield estimate for Illinois of 225 bushels per acre was kept in mind during the third day of the 2024 Pro Farmer Crop Tour, but it didn’t quite meet expectations. The overall assessment of the state's corn that day was "variable." Brian Grete, the eastern leg director, mentioned that the yield has been more variable than anticipated, and for it to reach 225, it must be consistently stellar. Despite this, some fields with big yields can offset the ones that didn't quite get the mark. The state, however, is still projected to have a big crop. Grete stated that it hit a new Crop Tour record. The estimate for this year is 5.38% higher than 2023's number and 5.46% above the three-year average. Regarding Illinois' corn yield estimates per acre, Wentworth mentioned that they are not seeing tar spots and that the plant health looks promising, with even the lower leaves still green without running out of nitrogen. Overall, excitement is building for the potential of a record crop. Illinois' corn and soybean yields are promising, with good plant health and potential for record crops.

EXPORT INSPECTIONS:12.8 million bushels of wheat were reported by the USDA as inspected for exports this week. Hard red wheat totaled 6.5 million bushels for export markets this week, with Indonesia taking the largest majority, followed by destinations to Chile and then Mexico. Compared to last weeks inspected HRS wheat numbers (7.2 million bushels), only 2.0 million bushels were reported as inspected by the USDA this week, however it seems inspections still remain 1% above the total amount needed to reach USDA targets. A total of 1.1 million bushels of SRW was reported this week, with white wheat totaling 3.1 million bushels. Once again, there was no reported durum wheat inspection for exports this week. Corn remains 1% below the seasonal pace needed to reach USDA inspection targets, however 45.9 million bushels were reported this week with primary final destinations of Mexico and Japan. Ramping up, slowly but surely, a total of 14.6 million bushels of soybeans were inspected for exports this week, remaining right on track with total USDA estimates needed to reach their target numbers. Milo inspections totaled 4.2 million bushels this week, with the sole amount making its way to China via the gulf.

EXPORT SALES: Old crop corn sales were reported at 4.7 million bushels this week, while N/C corn sales totaled 50.8 million bushels as we approach fall harvest. Total O/C wheat sales were reported as 18.1 million bushels this week, while no N/C wheat sales were reported; with sales finally catching up to USDA trade estimates. Soybean N/C sales ramped up yet again, with 61.6 million bushels sold for exports this week; falling 2% below the year-to-date market pace needed to reach USDA targets. A total of 0.3 million bushels of O/C milo were sold for exports this week, with N/C sales totaling 2.6 million bushels.
 


WEATHER: The forecast is expected to be sunny with a high temperature near 93°F today. The National Weather Service in Dodge City has issued a hazardous weather outlook today. A 15% chance of strong to marginally sever thunderstorms is anticipated between 4 pm and sunset; wind gusts of 50 to 60 mph are the main hazard anticipated. Friday is looking to be sunny with a high near 98°F and a low temperature around 69°F throughout the evening hours. This weekend is shaping up to be a warm one. High temperatures are expected around 100°F, with the evenings cooling off to the high-60s/low-70s. Next week, skies are expected to be sunny with temperatures around the low 90s. Evening temperatures are anticipated to be around the mid-60s. Monday evening presents a 30% chance of scattered Storms.

Trivia Answers

1. July
2. Graceland