Weekly Market Update 12-5-24

Here is your weekly market update from the Garden City Co-op Grain Origination Team.

Trivia

1.  In the song “Frosty the Snowman,” what made Frosty come to life?

2. What Christmas song was initially condemned by the Roman Catholic Church allegedly portraying an adulterous affair?

Answers at the bottom.

Market News

  UNEMPLOYMENT BENEFITS: Rose to 224K in the week ending November 30, up from 215K the previous week and above analyst expectations of 215 K. Yet, the total isn’t high enough to sound any alarms. The biggest increases were in California (+4,573) and Illinois (+2,814). The four-week moving average rose to 218.25K claims, up slightly from 217.5K the previous week. Continuing claims for the week ending November 23 dropped by 25K to 1.871 million, even after the previous week’s total was revised lower by 11K claims. The four-week moving average for continuing claims slipped by 3,250 to 1.884 million. I should note that today’s Challenger Job-Cut Report showed that firms issued notices of potential layoffs totaling 57,727 in November, which was only up slightly from a low number of 55,597 in October. Tomorrow's monthly jobs report is expected to show that the economy added 200,000 jobs in November, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.2% as more people joined the workforce. Recent data suggests October's weak report was affected by more than just hurricanes and the Boeing strike, as other areas added only 3,000 jobs. Conversely, some industry surveys indicate that firms were delaying hiring until after the election, which could influence future tax and regulatory policies. Tomorrow's report will clarify these trends and their implications for Federal Reserve decisions. The market currently expects two interest rate hikes within the next six months, with one likely on December 18th.
 

EXPORT INSPECTIONS: Wheat inspections for exports totaled 10.9 million bushels this week; with 3.3 bushels set for exports to the Philippines, 1.9 million bushels to Mexico, and 1.6 million bushels to South Korea. Corn totaled 36.8 million bushels this week, rising 10.0 million bushels above the USDA’s running 10-week average; sitting 4% above the year-to-date inspections relative to the seasonal pace needed to reach USDA’s target values. A total of 76.7 million bushels were inspected for exports this week, compared to 77.8 million bushels inspected in the report released 2 weeks ago. Of the 76.7 million bushels, 35.0 million bushels are destined for export markets in China, followed by 20.2 million bushels set for Italy, 2.7 million bushels to Mexico, and 2.1 million bushels to Egypt. Milo exports reach a weekly inspection high at 7.7 million bushels; 4.5 million bushels above the USDA’s running 10-week average value. Total milo inspections are 4% above the year-to-date inspections relative to the seasonal pace needed to reach USDA’s target values.

EXPORT SALES: Old crop corn sales totaled 68.2 million bushels this week and N/C corn sales totaled 0.9 million bushels, falling below the running 10-week average for corn sales at 68.2 million bushels on average. Taking yet another bump, corn remains 12% above the marketing year-to-date sales relative to the seasonal pace needed to reach USDA targets. Soybean sales this week totaled 85.0 million bushels, with no N/C sales reported. Wheat sales are beginning to steadily move in the downward direction, with O/C sales at 13.9 million bushels this week and no N/C sales were reported. Milo sales totaled 0.2 million bushels of O/C grain sold this week, once again, no N/C milo sales were reported; total sales falling 1.9 million bushels below the running 10-week average calculated at 2.1 million bushels on average.

BRAZILS BEAN & CORN ESTIMATES: The December SOYBEAN estimate, released on Monday, suggests a potential record, but it remains low—nearly 3 MMT below the USDA’s latest 169 MMT estimate and significantly lower than recent private forecasts in the low 170s. The StoneX Brazil team reported that soybean planting is now 92.4% complete, 10% ahead of last year and the fastest in five years due to improved conditions. Meanwhile, Argentina's soybean crop is also being planted ahead of schedule. This increasing global supply pressures U.S. export demand, particularly with the dollar's recent strength. Meanwhile, their CORN crop production was lowered by a slight 0.247 MMT to 24.638 MMT, with the second crop left alone and the third crop estimated even with last year, implying a potential total 2024/25 corn production of 128.5 MMT. Unlike the soybean side, this would be higher than USDA’s most recent 127 MMT estimate. The slight drop in first-crop corn production was entirely driven by a 5.7% month-on-month drop in yields in Rio Grande do Sul due to a recent shift to drier weather. StoneX Brazil pegged the country’s first corn crop at 74.9% planted on Friday, ahead of the 72.5% seen last year but still trailing the previous 5-year average by 8.6%, mainly due to delays in the northernmost growing regions. 




WEATHER: While we might see a few warmer days this winter, much like yesterday’s fair weather, it appears those days have mostly come and gone. Today is looking sunny with a high temperature near 42°F; winds coming out of the south/southeast at 8 to 10 mph. Overnight, clear skies with a low temperature around 24°F and winds becoming west/southwest after midnight. Friday’s forecast is sunny once again with a high temperature of 56°F and low temperatures falling into the mid- to upper-20s throughout the evening hours. This weekend is looking mostly sunny again with high temperatures right around 60°F. Evening hours will dip to the high-20s and low-30s both Saturday and Sunday. Moving into next week, skies are clear and sunny Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday with high temperatures ranging anywhere from 43°F to 50°F. Overnight temperatures maintain lows right around 20°F throughout the evening hours both Monday and Tuesday.

 

Trivia Answers

1.  An old silk hat

2. “I Saw Mommy Kissing Santa Claus”