Weekly Market Update 1/10/2025

Here is your weekly market update from the Garden City Co-op Grain Origination Team.

Trivia

1.  Which year did The Brady Bunch TV series first premiere?

2. Which was the first team to win the NFL Super Bowl?

Answers at the bottom.

Market New
 

CALIFORNIA WILDFIRES: Kinder Morgan reported that two fuel pipelines in the Los Angeles area have been shut down since January 8 due to power outages, impacting fuel supply to California, Arizona, and Nevada. Fortunately, no refineries have closed, and a quick recovery is expected once power is restored. As of Thursday, over 300,000 customers in California lacked electricity, according to Southern California Edison (SCE). On Friday morning, around 278,150 homes and businesses in SCE’s service area were without power due to wildfires near Los Angeles. Of these, 149,000 outages were due to the Public Safety Power Shutoff plan, while 129,000 were caused by wind damage. The wildfires have claimed 10 lives and destroyed nearly 10,000 structures, marking the most destructive incidents in Los Angeles history. Since January 7, approximately 1.29 million customers have been affected. Jeff Monford, a senior adviser at SCE, stated that thousands are working to restore power, which may take several days. The company has been notified to preserve evidence of the Eaton Fire, although no fire agencies have linked the utility to the incident.
 

EXPORT INSPECTIONS: Following export inspections for the week of 1/2/2025, wheat inspections for exports totaled 15.2 million bushels. Of the total value of wheat bushels inspected for exports, 5.4 million bushels are set for exports to Mexico, 2.5 million bushels to South Korea, 1.3 million bushels to the Philippines, and 0.7 million bushels to Japan. Corn export inspections were reported at 33.4 million bushels. Total corn inspections are 4.3 million bushels below the running 10-week average calculated by the USDA. A total of 47.2 million bushels of soybeans were inspected for exports this week. Of the total 47.2 million bushels inspected, 20.6 million bushels are destined for export markets in China, followed by 2.5 million bushels set for Germany, 2.4 million bushels to Italy, 2.1 million bushels to Egypt, and 1.6 million bushels to Mexico. No milo bushels were inspected for exports, as of reported totals the week of 1/2/2025.
 

EXPORT SALES: Old crop corn sales totaled 17.5 million bushels coming off the holiday season, and no N/C corn sales were reported the week of 1/2/2025. Corn sales fall below the running 10-week average at 60.3 million bushels. Corn remains 8% above the marketing year-to-date sales relative to the seasonal pace needed to reach USDA targets. Soybean sales totaled 10.6 million bushels, with no N/C sales reported. Old crop wheat sales totaled 4.1 million bushels sold and no N/C sales were reported. No O/C or N/C milo sales were reported; with the running 10-week average calculated at 1.4 million bushels.


USDA RECAP: Wild market today with a surprising bullish corn and soybean report. If you would have asked me this morning, I would have anticipated a bullish report but told you that it seemed to me like the market had already baked that in. USDA knows how to make a Friday more exciting. CORN: 2024 corn yield was slashed by 3.8 bu/ac with acreage up slightly – pushing 2024 production down 276 million bushels from the last report, lower than the lowest pre-report trade estimate. USDA did cut feed and exports, leaving ethanol use unchanged. Overall this pulled US carryout down to 1.540 billion bushels, pairing with the *very* lowest trade guess. World carryout is down 3.1 MMT this month, with production down 3.5 MMT. South American production was left unchanged, despite trade expectations that Argentinean production could be cut due to dryer conditions in the area. SOYBEANS: Yield was down 1.0 bu/ac with acreage slightly down as well, which spelled out to a 95 million bushel cut to 2024 production. US carryout is down 90 million bushels, with not a lot of changes made to the demand side of the balance sheet. World ending stocks were down 3.5 MMT. South American estimates were left alone on beans for the time being. WHEAT: No huge changes for the wheat complex. US carryout is up 3 million bushels, world production and carryout were both slightly raised.




WEATHER: Jumping back into an eventful week for weather after the holiday season, we could start to see some less eventful forecasts for the start of your 2025. The Friday forecast is sunny with a high temperature near 37°F; winds coming out of the north/northwest at 8 to 13 mph. Skies overnight are mostly clear with a low temperature around 15°F and wind chill values as low as 5°F. After an abundance of snow last weekend, this weekend’s forecast is shaping up to be much milder. Increasing cloud coverage is expected Saturday, with a high temperature near 46°F and overnight lows around 22°F. Sunday is looking to be sunny with a high temperature near 41°F and evening lows around 17°F. A calm first part to next week; Monday mostly sunny with a high near 41°F and overnight temperatures right around 16°F. We see temperatures start to pick up Tuesday through Thursday, with highs of 45, 52, and 53°F, respectively. Skies overnight next week will be mostly clear, with low temperatures ranging from the high-teens to low-20s.

Trivia Answers

1. 1969

2. Green Bay