Weekly Market Update 3-14-24

Here is your weekly market update from the Garden City Co-op Grain Origination Team.

Trivia

1. What occasion corresponds to the longest day of the year?

2. What is the name of Elvis Presley's Memphis home?
 

Answers at the bottom.

Market News

Commodity updates: There have been no significant changes in the corn market. The demand for corn domestically hasn't increased noticeably, and the producer seems to still be undersold. Corn planting is going well in Texas, and farmers in the Midwest are getting ready to start fieldwork as the warmer-than-usual temperatures prepare them for planting. Conab released their projections on Tuesday, which showed their production estimates down 1 mmt for Brazilian corn. While this did provide a little support during midweek sessions, it wasn’t enough to support the rallies we've seen.

Conditions for wheat in Kansas and Oklahoma remained steady at 53% and 65%, respectively, while Texas improved slightly to 44%. Weekly updates for more states will begin next week. Over the next two days, North Kansas, South Nebraska, and much of Colorado are expected to experience rainfall. However, the driest regions of the Panhandles and Western Oklahoma will not be affected. The KC May/July spread has weakened from its previous highs last week, indicating that the market recognizes the limited demand and uncompetitive nature of US wheat in the global market. This could lead to some risk premium on new crops. Grains are expected to open lower and have ample opportunity to flip during sessions. It's important to note that support for a continued rally is limited.

Regarding soybeans, short and sweet. Today's export sales were as anticipated, so there was no boost there. The low expectations were met as expected. The weather is providing some relief in the dry areas of Iowa and most other growing regions. Therefore, planting should proceed when the appropriate time slots arrive. South America is still in the same state.

 
Export inspections: Corn inspections for this week were satisfactory and met the higher end of trade estimates at 44.2 million bushels shipped. Although this figure is slightly lower than last week's, it keeps shipments on track with USDA estimates. Wheat export inspections improved over previous weeks to 14.8 million bushels shipped, led by shipments to the Philippines from the PNW. China also took a combo boat of HRW and WW from the PNW, which will help sentiment after another SRW sale was canceled. Inspected milo was 2.6 million bushels; for soybeans, 26.0 million bushels were inspected and shipped.

Export Sales: This week's corn sales were on the higher end of estimates at 50.5 million bushels sold vs 55.6 million bushels at the same time LY. No new crop contracts to sell. This week, the top three destinations had a different story: Japan, Mexico, and Taiwan. Wheat sales were poor this week due to cancellations by China and Unknown. However, China bought a cargo of HRW, which offset some of the cancellations from last week. Sales reported for wheat were 3.1 million bushels sold. New crop contracts 3.0 million bushels for 24/25. Soybean sales were at 13.8 million bushels with 3.5 million bushels for new crop sales, and Milo 200,000 bushels sold below the 5-year average but still above the pace needed by the USDA.

Weather

The weather for this week will be mostly cloudy for the next couple of days into the weekend, with partial sunshine and temperatures ranging from mid to high 50s. This weather is expected to continue into next week, with highs in the 60s and even reaching up to 70 degrees. The lows will be in the high 20s and mid-30s. There is no wind expected, and no moisture has been predicted for the next 10 days.

 

Trivia Answers

1.  The summer solstice.
2.  Graceland.