Weekly Market Update 5-2-24

Here is your weekly market update from the Garden City Co-op Grain Origination Team.

Trivia

1. Pocahontas was baptized and given what English name?

2. Who was the voice of Groot in Guardians of the Galaxy?

Answers at the bottom.

Market News

INTEREST MARKET NEWS:The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has decided unanimously to maintain the current federal funds target range of 5.25%-5.50%. This is because there is no economic justification for reducing interest rates. Powell stated, "It is likely that gaining the confidence needed to lower interest rates will take longer than previously expected." The FOMC is prepared to maintain the target of the federal funds rate for as long as possible. They also hold on to the fact that the following policy rate move will not be a hike and will return inflation to 2% over time. The GDP is strong, the unemployment rate is at 3.8%, and inflation progress is slowing down, if not completely halted. If inflation moves sustainably toward 2%, we can expect a shift in June, July, and September. If this happens, we will take June and July off the table and focus solely on September.

CROP PROGRESS REPORT: HRW conditions slipped another 1% this week across the country, coming in at 49% good-to-excellent. The crop is rated 16% poor-to-very-poor. Kansas was down 5% to only 31% good-to-excellent. Spotty rain coverage in the High Plains probably means another lower score next week. Fall crops continue to go in the ground ahead of the average pace, with corn planting jumping 15% from last week to 27% nationwide. The U.S. soybean crop is reported at 18% planted, up 10% from last week and ahead of the 10% five-year average. A stretch of wetter weather in some regions of the country this week could lead to some row-crop planting delays.

SOUTH AMERICA: Argentina’s Buenos Aires grains exchange lowered their estimate for the 2023/2024 corn crop today, citing the effects of a damaging insect plague and poor weather. They are forecasting the crop at 46.5 MMT, down from their previous estimate of 49.5 MMT. USDA currently has the Argentinian corn crop pegged at 55 MMT.

EXPORT INSPECTIONS/SALES: Exports For the week, corn inspections were in line with trade estimates, with 48.3 million bushels being shipped. This amount was sufficient to keep shipments on track to meet the USDA's estimate. Japan and Mexico were the top destinations for corn, followed by Colombia and South Korea. Regarding wheat inspections, 17.7 million bushels were inspected, which was consistent with the 10-week pace. China received 2.6 million bushels of SRW, while Nigeria received HRW shipments from the Gulf, and Japan and Taiwan received PNW shipments. Soybean inspections totaled 9.2 million bushels at the lower end of the estimated range. Japan and Mexico were the primary recipients of the soybeans. Milo inspected and shipped 2.8 million bushels. Sales for the week were not very impressive. Corn sales for old crop were reported at 29.9 million bushels, while only 1.3 million bushels were sold for new crop. The major buyers this week were Japan, Mexico, and South Korea, with Mexico purchasing most of the new crop sales. This has helped to get sales closer to the USDA target, but there is still a shortfall of about 44.4 million bushels. Wheat sales were disappointing and showed cancellations for old crop but managed to book 15 million bushels for new crop. Soybeans recorded sales of 15.2 million bushels for the old crop and 300,000 bushels for the new crop. Milo sold 300,000 bushels with no new crop contracts.

Weather: Sunny and breezy today, with winds of 15 to 22mph and a high near 72°F. Tomorrow is mostly sunny with a high near 73°F and a 30% chance of showers possible after 4 pm. Friday night showers and thunderstorms are possible, with an 80% chance of precipitation and rainfall amounts estimated between a quarter and half an inch. A slight chance of rain remains throughout Saturday and Sunday, with highs of 73°F and lows around 46°F. Saturday night into Sunday, there’s a 30% chance of showers and thunderstorms still, with no precipitation in the forecast for the remainder of the week. Next week is expected be sunny with clear skies and high temperatures in the low 80s. You can expect temperatures to cool off in the evenings, with lows expected in the mid- to high-40s. 
 

Trivia Answers

1. Rebecca
2. Vin Diesel