Weekly Market Update 5-30-24

Here is your weekly market update from the Garden City Co-op Grain Origination Team.

Trivia

1. Who is the youngest golfer ever to win the U.S. Junior Amateur title?

2. What magic duo performed at the Mirage casino in Las Vagas from 1990 - 2003?

Answers at the bottom.

Market News

EXORT INSPECTIONS: The recent corn inspections report met trade estimates, but it was lower than last week and lower than previous year and the 5-year average, with 42.4 million bushels shipped. Mexico continues to be the largest weekly and yearly buyer of corn, with year-to-date shipments nearing 600 million bushels. Their significant purchasing has been driven by the drought they’ve faced, which is something to watch as we approach the start of the next marketing year. The latest wheat inspections reached 14.7 million bushels, matching the top estimates and coming just below the recent weekly average. Mexico is leading shipments, mainly through railcars, followed by PNW shipments to the Philippines, Taiwan, and Japan. Mill buyers are generally uninterested in nearby movement, and the attractive prices have led delivery houses to buy and hold stocks. India is expected to drop the 40% import tax and restart purchasing wheat, and it is projected to need 3-5 MMT to replenish stocks and soften prices. On the bottom end of estimates, soybeans saw 7.8 million bushels shipped, with China, Mexico, and Indonesia as the top destinations. Milo saw 1.9 million bushels & is above the pace the USDA needs—no Export Sales due to the holiday week.
 
CORN & WHEAT MARKETS: The price of corn has been trading within a narrow range of about 4 cents, approaching the lows we experienced in May and nearing the 50 and 100-day trading averages. The recent progress in planting on Tuesday, which alleviated some concerns about planting, has directly impacted the market. This was further influenced by speculative selling, leading to an increase in open interest by another 15,000 yesterday, and speculative funds adding an estimated 10,000 short contracts to their position.
 
The wheat markets continued to decline overnight; today, there is no positive news to support them. There are reports of harvest starting in Central Oklahoma, but it is expected to be interrupted by a wetter forecast. Paris wheat, which drove the recent rally, is down again today and can be a good indicator of what we can expect in the U.S. markets.
 
CROP PROGRESS: The latest report indicates that corn planting advanced by 13 percentage points last week, reaching 83% completion nationwide as of Sunday, May 26. This year's progress lags behind last year's by 6 percentage points. Iowa has planted 88% of its corn, Illinois is at 80%, and Pennsylvania is at 53%, 13 points below the average. Soybean planting progress has remained consistent with the previous week, with 68% planted, putting it 16 points ahead. Although still behind last year, it is better than the 5-year average. Regarding HRW development, 77% of winter wheat was headed as of Sunday, 8 points ahead of last year and the five-year average. In terms of crop condition, 48% of the crop was rated in good-to-excellent condition, down 1 point from the previous week but significantly higher than the 34% from a year ago. The percentage rated very poor to poor increased by 1 point to 19%, still lower than the 35% at this time last year.
 
OIL SPILL IN THE CANAL: The Panama Canal Authority is currently addressing an oil spill in one of the locks at the southern end of the waterway near Balboa. The incident, which occurred on May 26 during the transit of an MSC vessel bound for Ecuador, has been contained to one lock chamber. However, the spill and following clean-up operations could potentially disrupt canal transits and increase draft levels to accommodate more vessels, a situation that industry professionals should be aware of.






Weather: Today, we can expect some cloud cover early, followed by heavy thunderstorms in the afternoon. A few storms may be severe, with temperatures reaching a high of 84 degrees. Winds will be from the SSE at 10 to 20 mph, and there is a 90% chance of rain. Looking ahead to the 10-day forecast, it seems there could be a chance of rain on Saturday evening, with temperatures averaging in the high 80s to low 90s and lows staying comfortable around 60 degrees. We should not expect high winds throughout the upcoming week.

Trivia Answers

1. Tiger Woods
2. Siegfried & Roy