Weekly Market Update 11-14-24

Here is your weekly market update from the Garden City Co-op Grain Origination Team.

Trivia

1. Which country is the largest by land area?

2. Which metal is liquid at room temperature?

Answers at the bottom.

Market News

CROP PROGRESS: 95% of the total United States corn crop was reported as harvested this week; 9% above 2023s harvest values. The state of KS is reported as 97% harvested, versus 93% last week and 96% last year. Across the US, 96% of the world’s soybeans have been reported as harvested, compared to 94% last week and 94% in 2023. An estimated 91% of the nation’s sorghum crop has been reported as harvested this week, with harvest values from the previous year at 90% harvested. In the state of TX, 100% of the sorghum crop has been harvested, followed by 88% in KS and 80% in the state of OK. Within the United States, 91% of all winter wheat is planted as of this week, with 97% of Kansas winter wheat reported as planted.

UNEMPLOYMENT SHRINKING: The number of Americans filing new unemployment benefit applications decreased last week, suggesting the labor market remains strong despite a slowdown in job growth in October. Initial claims fell by 4,000 to a seasonally adjusted total of 217,000 for the week ending November 9, while economists had predicted 223,000 claims. In early October, unemployment claims rose due to Hurricanes Helene and Milton and a Boeing workers' strike. However, layoffs remain historically low, supporting the economy. Lou Crandall, chief economist at Wrightson ICAP, stated that while many employment indicators show a softening labor market, this trend is not yet evident in unemployment insurance data. Although recovery from Hurricane Helene may take time, economists expect job growth to improve in November, especially after the end of the Boeing strike, which allows the company to lift its furloughs. In October, nonfarm payrolls increased by only 12,000 jobs, the smallest gain in nearly four years. The Federal Reserve is expected to implement a third interest rate cut next month due to improving labor market conditions, despite stalled progress in reducing inflation. Last week, the Fed lowered its benchmark overnight interest rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4.50% to 4.75%. This follows a half-percentage-point rate cut in September, the first reduction since 2020, after raising rates by a total of 525 basis points in 2022 and 2023 to combat inflation. The number of individuals receiving benefits after the first week of assistance—a measure of hiring—fell by 11,000 to 1.873 million for the week ending November 2, according to the claims report. This decline likely reflects the end of Boeing-related furloughs and reduced hurricane disruptions.

EXPORT INSPECTIONS: Still falling below, the running 10-week average, 12.8 million bushels of wheat were inspected for export markets this week; 3.1 million bushels making their way to South Korea, 2.1 million bushels traveling to the Philippines, 1.5 million bushels to Mexico, and 1.2 million bushels setting out for their destination in Japan. Taking a slight decrease this week compared to the running 10-week average calculated by the USDA, corn inspections this week totaled 31.2 million bushels versus 30.7 million bushels last week. 83.7 million bushels of soybeans were inspected for exports this week, compared to 79.3 million bushels inspected in last week’s report. Once again, another week of China taking the lead, with 58.3 million bushels of soybeans recorded as exports. Milo exports this week took yet another climb compared to the 2.6 million bushels inspected for the export market last week; this week coming in at 6.6 million bushels.

EXPORT SALES: Export sales will be released tomorrow, Friday, November 15, 2024.

WASDE RECAP: CORN there wasn’t anything shocking: the USDA slightly adjusted the yield down by 0.7 to 183.8 bushels per acre and reduced total production by 60 million bushels. There was no change to the demand base for corn, which isn’t pleasant considering the current export demand pace. However, the USDA seems to want to see how the program evolves for the rest of the year to prove it’s not just a front-loaded situation. The bottom line is that the carryout (CO) was tightened by 60 million bushels to 1.938 billion. The MILO balance sheet continues its rollercoaster ride but always brings us back to square one. The USDA raised the yield back up to 60.8, which added 16 million bushels. To counter that, the USDA increased feed demand by 15 million bushels, resulting in a total gain of only 1 million bushels, bringing the carryout to 31 million. You could say that BEANS had the “surprise” of the day, with a drop in yield of 1.5 bushels per acre to 51.7, which cut production back by 121 million bushels. The USDA did implement some demand cuts: crush was backed up by 15 million bushels—if oil share continues this trend, the USDA will likely adjust that backup—and exports dropped by 25 million bushels. The total net change resulted in an 81 million bushel cut to the carryout, leading to a projected carryout of 470 million bushels. Still, that is the third-largest carryout for beans in the past 20 years.
 

WEATHER:Your Thursday forecast is sunny skies with a high temperature near 60°F, winds coming out of the south/southwest at 5 to 9 mph. A decent break after the last two days of windy weather. The evening is looking to be mostly clear with a low temperature around 28°F. Friday’s forecast is looking to be sunny with a high near 63°F and clear skies through the overnight hours with a low temperature around 43°F. The weekend forecast is looking mostly sunny with temperatures ranging from the mid-50s to upper-60s; evening hours are predicted to be around 37°F. Sunday night, a 40% chance of scattered showers is possible, mainly after midnight. A 60% chance of showers is possible Monday before noon, mostly cloudy skies with a high temperature near 53°F; overnight lows around 31°F. Tuesday is looking to be mostly sunny, with a high near 47°F. Overnight, we’re looking at a 20% chance of rain and you heard it here, snow, with low temperatures around 26°F. Winter weather might be creeping in, as Wednesday is mostly sunny with high temperatures in the low-40s.

Trivia Answers

1. Russia

2. Mercury