Weekly Market Update 10-11-24

Here is your weekly market update from the Garden City Co-op Grain Origination Team.

Trivia

1. What does PEMDAS stand for?

2. What candy was originally known as “chicken feed”?

Answers at the bottom.

Market News

ENERGY COMPLEX: Thursday morning, driven by a spike in fuel demand as Hurricane Milton hit Florida and supply risks in the Middle East influencing the market. Prices surged earlier in the month following Iran’s missile attacks on Israel. However, they have since stabilized, as Israel has yet to retaliate. Despite Middle East tensions, there are concerns about a weakening demand, mainly due to economic slowdowns in China and North America, which continue to affect the market outlook. Analysts warn that without significant demand or supply disruptions, any potential price spikes from conflicts in the Middle East could be brief; however, fall harvest and home heating oil could make markets turn bullish. Oil prices surged by about 4% on Thursday, with a spike in U.S. fuel consumption ahead of Hurricane Milton hitting Florida; in comparison, (WTI) crude rose by $2.61 to settle at $75.85 a barrel. In the U.S., the world's largest oil producer and consumer, Hurricane Milton caused about a quarter of fuel stations to sell out of gasoline & knocked out power to more than 3.4 million homes and businesses in Florida. Analysts at energy advisory firm Ritterbusch and Associates mentioned that closures of several product terminals, delayed tanker truck deliveries, and disrupted pipeline movement will likely affect supplies well into the following week due to broad-based power outages.  This vast uncertainty across Florida's petroleum infrastructure generally has supported gasoline values. U.S. gasoline futures were leading the energy complex higher, closing up about 4.1% on Thursday. 

EXPORT INSPECTIONS: This week, 13.4 million bushels of week were inspected for exports; falling below the running 10-week average calculated by the USDA. Of the total wheat inspected this week, HRW composes 0.9 million bushels, HRS wheat composes 4.5 million bushels, SRW wheat composes 1.6 million bushels, white wheat composes 6.3 million bushels of the total, and no durum wheat inspections were reported. Corn inspections totaled 36.7 million bushels this week, falling 4.7 million bushels below the running 10-week average. Of the corn inspected for exports this week, 16.7 million bushels will be traveling to Mexico, followed by 8.7 million bushels that will be making their home in Japan. Hitting its highest total of inspected bushels yet thus far, soybean inspections totaled 52.6 million bushels this week; the largest majority being 25.9 million bushels traveling to China. Milo exports this week fall well below the running 10-week average, however 2% above the year-to-date inspection pace relative to the seasonal pace needed to reach USDA targets, coming in at 0.1 million bushels.

EXPORT SALES: As we progress further into fall-harvest, 2024 crops become “old crop” sales, therefore corn sales totaled 48.1 million bushels this week, while no N/C sales were reported for the 2025 crop year. Soybean sales remain strong at 46.5 million bushels, once again falling 7% below the marketing year-to-date sales estimates needed to reach USDA targets. 15.9 million bushels were reported sold this week in the export sales market; 0.2 million bushels reported as 2025 crop. Current milo sales totaled 0.2 million bushels this week; maintaining the level of 13% below marketing year-to-date sales volume needed to reach USDA targets.
 
WASDE RECAP: Besides corn yields increasing and stocks going slightly above trade estimates, this report was passable. Corn: The September 30 stock report indicates that old-crop feed usage has increased by 39 mil-bu. Old crop ending stocks have decreased by 52 million, aligning with the increased usage. New-crop yields have risen by 0.2 bushels per acre, resulting in a production increase of 17 mil-bu. New-crop exports have seen a 25-mil-bu rise, leading to an overall carryout decrease of 58 mil-bu. This is slightly lower than expected but still just below the 2-billion-bushel mark. The world carry-in for 2024/25 has increased by three million tonnes, while production has decreased by 1.4 million metric tonnes and carryout by 1.7 million metric tonnes. Combined usage in Argentina and Brazil has risen by 2.5 million metric tonnes this month. Wheat: 2024 yields are down 1.0 bpa, but harvested acres are up slightly; production is down 11 mbu per the Small Grains report previously. Feed use was up 10 mil-bu, but overall, the ending stocks fell by 16 mbu this month. World wheat carrying up a million tonnes but production falls 1.2 MMT, with overall 2024/25 carryout up a half-million tonnes. Beans: 2024 yields and production are down slightly, and stocks remain unchanged. Not many moves in the world S&D tables either. Ultimately, grains take an initial hit on bearish corn yield figure, and stocks cut less than expected; wheat sees sharper losses following a stronger run of price action as of late.

WEATHER:Your Friday weather is looking sunny with a high temperature of 91°F with winds blowing around 6 mph out of the northwest, becoming southwest later in the day. The evening hours are still expected to be breezy after midnight with temperatures falling to the low-50s in the overnight hours. This week is looking to be fair; Saturday temperatures anticipated around 90°F and Sunday cooling off with a high of 73°F. This weekend’s overnight hours are expected to bring temperatures in the low-40s to low-50s, maintaining a steady breeze predominantly out of the northwest/northeast. The forecast for Columbus Day is predicting sunny skies with a high temperature in the low-70s before cooling off overnight with a low temperature around 40°F. Throughout the day on Tuesday, temperatures are looking to be around 73°F with sunny skies. The overnight hours are looking to again bring clear skies, with a low temperature in the mid-40s. Moving into Wednesday and Thursday, you can expect more sunny skies with high temperatures in the low-to mid-80s.

Trivia Answers

1. Parentheses, exponents, multiplication, division, addition, and subtraction
2. Candy Corn