Weekly Market Update 10-31-24

Here is your weekly market update from the Garden City Co-op Grain Origination Team.

Trivia

1. What vegetable was once thought to have supernatural powers on Halloween?

2. What root vegetable was originally used to carve on Halloween before pumpkins?

Answers at the bottom.

Market News

GARDEN CITY CO-OP APP UPDATE: The GCC grain team has been working diligently with StoneX to enhance the Garden City Co-op app. Recent updates include market commentary, a new market quotes tab, corrections to the scale ticket display, a visible total of bushels in the unsettled delivery position, and solutions for users facing login issues. Additionally, the ability to sell grain through the app has proven to be a valuable feature. We’re excited about several forthcoming updates that we believe will further improve your in-app experience. If you haven't yet downloaded the Garden City Co-op app, please contact a Grain Originator to get enrolled today!

 BIRD FLU IN SWINE: According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), H5N1 bird flu has been confirmed in a pig on a backyard farm in Oregon, the first virus detection in swine in the United States. Pigs can become co-infected with both bird and human viruses, which may exchange genes and potentially create a more dangerous virus. The USDA assures that this case poses no risk to the nation's pork supply and that the overall public risk from bird flu remains low. Virologist Richard Webby noted that while pigs were the source of the H1N1 pandemic in 2009-2010, the finding on a small farm is less concerning than if it had occurred on a commercial farm. The Oregon farm is quarantined, and other animals, including sheep and goats, are under surveillance. The USDA believes the outbreak originated with wild birds, emphasizing the impact of bird migration on spreading the virus. The USDA has expanded bird flu surveillance to include nationwide bulk milk testing. While this strain is linked to wild birds, knowing its presence in dairy and bovine populations is crucial. The pigs were not intended for the commercial food supply, but the finding has affected lean hog futures prices at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. Experts warn pig farmers to remain vigilant. This year, 36 people have tested positive for bird flu, mostly farm workers who were in contact with sick animals. Since 2022, the virus has caused the loss of over 100 million poultry birds in the worst bird flu outbreak in U.S. history.

SOUTH AMERICAN WEATHER: Brazil saw scattered rains in the north and northeast parts of the country this week, while forecasts show widespread heavy precipitation amounts over the next ten days. Southern Brazil remains the driest, but forecasts still are expected to improve there in the next week. Argentina was missed rains yesterday, but is expected to start receiving some tomorrow and into next week. This should improve moisture in key corn and soybean areas. The USDA attaché in Buenos Aires estimated 2024/25 Argentine soybean production at 52 MMT, a million MMT higher than USDA’s October estimate. It’s still looking like overall the South American crop could be another record.

CROP PROGRESS UPDATE: 81% of the total United States corn crop was reported as harvested this week; 16% above last week’s values and 13% above last year’s values. The state of KS is reported as 89% harvested, versus 83% last week and 87% last year. Across the US, 89% of the world’s soybeans have been reported as harvested, compared to 81% last week and 82% in 2023. An estimated 75% of the nation’s sorghum crop has been reported as harvested this week, holding steady with harvest values from the previous year at 74% harvested in 2023. In the state of TX, 99% of the sorghum crop has been harvested, nearing the end of fall harvest, followed by 67% in KS and 57% in the state of OK. Within the United States, 80% of all winter wheat is planted as of this week, with 87% of Kansas winter wheat reported as planted.

EXPORT INSPECTIONS: Falling below the running 10-week average, 9.1 million bushels of wheat were inspected for export markets this week; 1.8 million bushels making their way to the Philippines and another 1.1 million bushels traveling via rail to Mexico. This week, total inspected wheat values hold steady once again at 3% above the year-to-date inspections relative to the seasonal pace needed to reach USDA target values. Taking a slight decrease this week compared to the running 10-week average calculated by the USDA, corn inspections this week totaled 32.4 million bushels versus 39.4 million bushels last week. Perhaps still a big leap for soybeans this week, 88.0 million bushels were inspected for exports, compared to 89.4 million bushels inspected in last week’s report. China once again leads the pack, with 54.9 million bushels of soybeans being recorded as exports. Another slow week for milo exports this week with only 0.1 million bushels, all of which were exported to China.
 
EXPORT SALES: A cooler week for corn sales after last week’s spike. Old crop sales totaled 92.2 million bushels, once again surpassing the running 10-week average for corn sales at 42.3 million bushels. No N/C sales were recorded this week. Soybean sales this week took yet another climb at 83.5 million bushels sold for exports; once again, no N/C sales were reported. Wheat sales simmered down a tick this week with 15.1 million bushels sold; 5.1 million bushels of HRW, 4.6 million bushels of HRS, 0.9 million bushels of SRW, and 4.6 million bushels of white wheat. No N/C wheat sales were reported for exports this week. Old crop milo sales this week were recorded at 0.2 million bushels; falling below last week’s sales at 2.8 million bushels and no 2025 N/C sales were reported.



WEATHER: Your Halloween forecast doesn’t look too spooky; skies are sunny with a high temperature near 60°F. Trick-or-treating this evening might be a little chilly, with evening temperatures around 34°F, winds blowing out of the north/northwest at 9 to 14 mph. Friday looks much the same during the day, with sunny skies once again and a high temperature near 69°F. Moving into the overnight hours, we have a 30% chance of showers and thunderstorms after 1 am with a low temperature in the mid-40s. The weekend forecast looks like a 40 to 50% chance of showers and thunderstorms on Saturday and into the evening hours, with a high temperature near 65°F throughout the daytime hours and a low of 51°F throughout the evening. Sunday presents itself with mostly sunny skies and a high temperature near 74°F. Overnight appears to be another 40% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms with a low temperature around 45°F. Moving into early next week, a 60% chance of precipitation is possible after 1 pm, with partly sunny skies and a high temperature in the low-60s. During the overnight hours, a 50% chance of precipitation is possible before 1 am with cloudy skies and a low temperature around 32°F. The remainder of the earlier half of next week looks to be sunny skies with temperatures in the mid- to upper-50s.

Trivia Answers

1. Cabbage

2. Turnips