Weekly Market Update 9-26-24

Here is your weekly market update from the Garden City Co-op Grain Origination Team.

Trivia

1. In what year were the first Air Jordan sneakers released?

2. How many hearts does an octopus have?

Answers at the bottom.

Market News

 
RUSSIA WINTER WHEAT 2025: Due to drought in key producing regions, Russia's winter wheat sowing rates have dropped to the lowest level in 11 years. The Sovecon consultancy reported that as of September 20, 8.3 million hectares had been sown with winter grains, compared to 9.3 million hectares a year earlier and the five-year average. This marks the lowest figure since 2013. The slow sowing campaign in the southern and Volga regions, where it is lagging behind last year's figures by 0.4 million hectares, sets the stage for a relatively low harvest next year. Despite extreme weather hitting many of its key grain-producing regions, Russia, the world's biggest wheat exporter, has maintained its official grain harvest forecast of 132 million metric tons this year. However, Sovecon stressed that in the past month, the European part of Russia has received less than 20% of normal rainfall, acting as a restraining factor for planting and threatening already sown fields. The agriculture ministry announced a target harvest level of 170 million metric tons of grains and legumes by 2030.

CHINA’S STIMULUS PLANS: On Tuesday, Beijing announced its most significant stimulus since the pandemic. The goal was to boost the world's second-largest economy and counter the deflationary impact that has affected global currency and equity markets this year. The package, which was broader than expected, includes increased funding and interest rate cuts. European stocks, emerging-market currencies, and commodities reacted positively to the news. However, some analysts have questioned its long-term effectiveness due to domestic businesses' and consumers' extremely weak credit demand. China has traditionally driven growth for emerging markets, particularly through commodity and oil exports. However, this time may be different. According to Hasnain Malik at Tellimer, the lack of direct fiscal stimulus for weak consumer demand could limit the package's impact on global commodities demand. Nonetheless, countries close to China and those with strong trading ties may see some positive effects. Charu Chanana of Saxo Markets in Singapore also noted potential benefits for countries holding Chinese government bonds. This stimulus comes after a significant U.S. Federal Reserve rate cut, which generally favors emerging markets.

EXPORT INSPECTIONS: USDA numbers reported a total of 26.1 million bushels of wheat inspected for the export markets this week; well above the current value of export inspection trade estimates and 3% above year-to-date inspections relative to the needed seasonal pace. Hard red wheat makes up 5.6 million bushels, while HRS wheat composes 6.9 million bushels of the total inspected wheat value. Soft red wheat totaled 4.2 million bushels this week, of that, 3.2 million bushels will be traveling to its destination in Ecuador. White wheat inspections totaled 6.1 million bushels this week and will soon be calling Vietnam, the Philippines, and Japan home. Durum wheat was reported at 0.8 million bushels inspected for exports this week, with Italy taking 0.7 million bushels and the remaining 0.1 million bushels traveling to Guatemala. Another strong week this week for inspected corn, totaling 43.4 million bushels, well above the running 10-week average and trade estimates. 18.5 million bushels will be reaching their final destination in Mexico, followed by 12.3 million bushels making their way to Columbia. Last, but not least, soybean inspections totaled 17.8 million bushels this week and milo totaled 3.1 million bushels; finally creeping above the running 10-week average for both commodities.

EXPORT SALES: A total of 21.1 million bushels of corn was reported as sold this week in the export market. Soybean sales totaled 57.9 million bushels; surpassing the running 10-week average but remaining on track with USDA export sales estimates. Yet another week of slow O/C wheat sales at 5.8 million bushels. New crop wheat sales totaled 0.4 million bushels, all of which come from SRW sales this week. Shockingly enough, no milo was reported as sold in the export markets this week.



WEATHER: Very mild weather so far this week! The remainder of your Thursday is sunny with a high of 85°F. Like most days in western KS, we can expect a south/southeast wind blowing at 11 to 13 mph. Temperatures are expected to dip to around 53°F during the overnight hours, with winds dying down to 5 to 9 mph. Friday’s forecast looks mostly sunny, with a high near 86°F and low temperatures are anticipated around 52°F overnight. Continuing the mild weather trend, this weekend, temperatures are expected in the mid- to upper-80s; overnight temperatures reaching the lower-50s. Our cool weather continues into the earlier part of next week, with Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday’s temperatures predicted near 86°F and 72°F. Overnight skies are mostly clear with temperatures in the upper-40s to low-50s.

Trivia Answers

1. 1984
2. 3