Weekly Market Update 4/10/2025

Here is your weekly market update from the Garden City Co-op Grain Origination Team.

Trivia

1. What does the term "IQ" stand for?

2. True or False: Crawfish are fish.

Answers at the bottom.

Market News

TARIFF POLICY UPDATE: Tariff policy concerns leave agricultural exports up in the air this morning. Some farmers are beginning to worry about the potential for a trade war, higher equipment costs, and what this could mean for their operation. Late Wednesday, following the announcement of a temporary decrease in tariff rates to 10% for 90 days, grain and oilseed markets rallied. However, it’s important to note that this pause on tariffs will NOT count for China – a tweet from President Trump on Wednesday announced that “I am hereby raising the Tariff charged to China by the United States of America to 125%, effect immediately.” A sustainable rebound for stocks late on Wednesday, unfortunately, did not translate into overnight buying, despite positive inflation and unemployment figures released earlier this morning. May yellow corn was up again yesterday, the highest price seen within the daytime trading session since late February. While soybeans have rebounded from their sharp decrease seen last week following the Liberation Day announcements, today’s WASDE reports brings about some bearish elements. Finding strength from the corn and soybean outlooks, historically low US acreage, and the weather concerns drifting throughout the US plains region, wheat futures maintain support and reached the highest intraday price yesterday since mid- to late March.

 CROP PROGRESS UPDATE: This week brings with it the first weekly crop progress update from the USDA. Winter wheat conditions across the US represented 48% good/excellent versus 56% last year: 51% out of KS, 42% out of OK, and 26% out of TX. The USDA reports that 2% of the United State’s corn crop has been planted as of early this week, most of this coming from a 59% planted rating out of TX. Sorghum is 13% planted across the US, with 49% of TX being planted and no values reported yet for SD, NE, KS, OK, or CO.

EXPORTS: Export sales this morning were disappointing across the board, likely because of all the uncertainty that continues to exist around trade. Old crop corn sales were reported at 30.9 million bushels, the lowest number since February – South Korea, Columbia, Japan and Mexico were the biggest buyers. Mexico and Japan put some new crop corn on the books as well, with 9.3 million bushels reported for that slot. Soybean sales came in at 6.3 million bushels, the lowest number since early February. All wheat was reported at 3.9 million bushels, with HRW at 0.7 million. Notably, Panama cancelled a chunk of HRW, while Nigeria and Columbia booked some. Export inspections were steady this week, with corn at 62.3 million bushels, soybeans at 293 million, and wheat at 12.3 million.

USDA RECAP: Corn feed/residual usage for 2024/25 is down by 25 million bushels, but exports have increased by 100 million bushels, resulting in an overall rise of 75 million bushels in ending stocks. The world carryout has decreased by 1.3 million tonnes due to a 1.9 MMT reduction in U.S. stocks, while production has increased by 1.0 MMT, with the European Union contributing an additional 1.3 MMT. However, E.U. usage has also gone up this month.

U.S. Soybean imports for 2024/25 are projected to increase by 5 million bushels, but a 10 million bushel increase in domestic crush leads to a 5 million bushel decrease in carryout, aligning with estimates. The world soybean carry-in for 2024/25 is up by 2.8 million metric tons, but carryout is only slightly higher, with stable production and increased South American crush figures this month.

In the 2024/25 U.S. Wheat market, imports rose by 10 million bushels, while exports decreased by 15 million bushels, resulting in a 27 million bushel increase in ending stocks. Globally, production for 2024/25 saw a slight decline, with carryout stocks increasing by approximately 600,000 tonnes.

Takeaways, USDA makes a move on corn exports, setting a bullish tone, with soybeans piggybacking on the long-awaited cut, with a strong close for today’s trade. Wheat looks more bearish, with stocks weighing on wheat throughout the complex. There is nothing to see with Milo staying unchanged.



WEATHER: Temperatures are starting to heat up, and it feels like spring is on the way. Today, we can expect a high in the mid-70s, while this weekend will bring highs in the mid-90s on Saturday. For the following week, temperatures are expected to remain in the 70s to 80s. Unfortunately, there is no moisture in the forecast, but we can look forward to mostly sunny skies and definitely warmer temperatures.

Trivia Answers

1.  Intelligence Quotient

2. False, they are custaceans.