Weekly Market Update 4/17/2025

Here is your weekly market update from the Garden City Co-op Grain Origination Team.

Trivia

1. About how many chocolate bunnies are produced for Easter each year?

2. In which state did the Easter bunny first appear? 

Answers at the bottom.

Market News

REMINDERS THIS WEEK:
Don’t forget to contact a member of the Grain Team before April 30^th to enroll your new crop corn or milo in our Summit Max contract! Questions? Reach out to a member of our team to learn more and discuss details.
 
Markets and your local GCC offices will be closed on Friday, April 17^th in honor of Good Friday.


INTEREST MARKET NEWS: President Trump has criticized Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, suggesting he should be fired for not cutting interest rates quickly enough. He referred to Powell as "Too Late" on Truth Social and expressed urgency for his removal. Powell's term runs until May 2026, and he emphasized the Fed's independence, stating there's no legal basis for removing him without cause. When the Fed changes its policy rates, short-term yields react, while long-term yields are influenced by the Fed’s guidance, which is crucial during times of rising inflation. If the president could dismiss the Fed chair at will, it would undermine that independence and create volatility in the markets, as political opinions would overshadow actual economic data. Market volatility has decreased, and interest rates are expected to follow Powell’s cautious approach until June. A rate cut of 25 basis points is likely by June 18th, with four cuts expected by year-end. This strategy aligns with the Fed's assessment of economic impacts before acting, coinciding with speculations about Powell’s position.


CROP PROGRESS UPDATE: Markets remain concerned with winter wheat crop conditions this week as more dry, hot weather sweeps through the Plains region. Winter wheat conditions across the US represented 47% good/excellent this week: 43% out of KS, 44% out of OK, and 23% out of TX. The USDA reports that 4% of the United States’ corn crop has been planted as of this week, up from 2% planted last week. Kansas is 11% planted, 1% planted in Nebraska, and 63% planted in Texas as of this week. Soybeans finally make the chart, with the United States reported at 2% planted. Sorghum is now 15% planted across the US, with 57% of TX being planted and once again, no values reported yet for SD, NE, KS, OK, or CO.


NOPA CRUSH: National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) released March soybean crush numbers this week, which were disappointing compared to trade estimates. 194.6 million bushels of soybeans were crushed in March, two million below the average trade estimate and down from last March’s record 196.4 million. This still was a month-over-month increase, with February crush at 177.9 million bushels. Cumulative crush is up to 1,350 million bushels, which is 42 million bushels ahead of last year’s pace, but not quite on pace with USDA’s current estimate of a 6% increase year-over-year from last year. It will be interesting to see if USDA adjusts crush down, with two months of below record crush and the market headed for a seasonal slowdown. Muted demand is not bullish for beans, as the trade still waits for 45Z to be finalized and exports remain limited.


EXPORTS: After a slow week of export sales last week, O/C corn sales were reported at 61.5 million bushels this morning. Soybean sales totaled 20.4 million bushels this week, resuming their place in line with USDA trade estimates. New crop soybean sales were reported at 6.7 million bushels. Wheat sales totaled 2.8 million bushels this morning, with 10.1 million bushels of N/C wheat sales reported as we quickly approach 2025 wheat harvest. Total export inspections for the week included 72.0 million bushels of corn, 20.1 million bushels of soybeans, and 22.2 million bushels of wheat.




WEATHER: Today is windy with a mix of clouds and sunshine. The high temperature is expected to reach 93 degrees, with winds coming from the southwest at 20-30 MPH and gusts exceeding 40 MPH. Looking ahead to the weekend, we can expect a different outlook, with cooler temperatures, increased cloud cover, and a chance of moisture on Sunday, where average temperatures may drop to the mid-50s. Starting on Monday, temperatures will begin to warm up, reaching the 70-80 degree range, with additional moisture forecasted for the latter part of the week.
 

Trivia Answers

1. 90 million 

2. Pennsylvania