Weekly Market Update 4/3/2025

Here is your weekly market update from the Garden City Co-op Grain Origination Team.

Trivia

1. What does SPF in sunscreen stand for?

2. What is the longest day of the year?

Answers at the bottom.

Market News
 

SUMMIT MAX: Enrollment is now open on our Summit Max contract, which prices December Corn futures for new crop corn or milo using the average of the daily high of the trading day from May 1^st-July 18^th. Essentially, an equal portion of your contracted bushels are priced at the high of the day every day during the pricing period, regardless of where the futures price closes each day. At the end of the pricing period, futures on your contract are set at the average of these daily highs. This contract is just one tool we are excited to offer for your operation’s grain marketing toolbox. Enrollment ends on April 30^th – contact a member of the Grain Team for more information or to sign up your bushels today!

“LIBERATION DAY” TARIFF UPDATES: Grain futures fell overnight after yesterday afternoon’s tariff announcement from the White House, along with stock index futures, 10-year and 2-year Treasury yields, and the US dollar. Fears are heightened this morning that a trade war, inflation, and a recession could be on the horizon. Despite yesterday’s events, however, grain markets appear to be generally settling back in this morning. President Trump stands firm in his belief that in time tariffs will lead to a positive improvement in our nation’s well-being and economy. As of midnight today, April 3, the US will put in place a baseline 10% tariff on all imported goods. A 25% tariff will be imposed on all automobiles imported into the US – the verdict is still out on how this could impact farm equipment imports. Should retaliatory tariffs be implemented by other countries on US products, Trump intends to impose additional tariffs in return; right now, this will be in the ballpark of half the current amount being levied on the US. While O/C corn futures fell 8-cents during the overnight session, May yellow corn is seeing 1- to 2-cent decreases to start the morning. The flip side of the coin for US corn farmers today, is that persistent dry conditions continue in parts of southern Brazil, that could ultimately decrease Safrinha crop yields. “Liberation Day” tariffs caused a 22-cent decrease in soybean futures overnight with fears around the impact that tariffs could ultimately have on US soybean exports. Wheat futures slid during the overnight trading session, but remain mostly untouched this morning, with our major exporters, Mexico and Canada, being left out of the tariff mix for now.

EXPORT INSPECTIONS: Corn export inspections surpassed expectations this week, with 63.6 million bushels shipped. Wheat inspections also performed well, reaching 16 million bushels, driven by rail shipments to Mexico and South Korea, along with a cargo to Kenya. Soybean shipments totaled 29.1 million bushels, while Milo exports contributed 0.9 million bushels.

EXPORT SALES: Corn sales were strong this morning, reaching 46.2 million bushels, with South Korea, Mexico, Japan, Taiwan, and an unknown buyer as the main purchasers. New crop totaled 6.5 million bushels in corn. In the soybean complex, sales were within the expected range at 15.1 million bushels, including 0.1 million in new crop sales. Wheat sales totaled 12.5 million bushels, with 3.5 million in new crop sales, while Milo sales reached 0.8 million bushels, with no new crop purchases.

USDA PLANTING AND STOCKS REPORT: With all the tariff headlines yesterday and today, Monday’s USDA reports seem like a million years ago. Regardless, here is your rundown of what USDA had to say. With these reports in the rearview mirror, the market will be back to watching weather, planting, and tariff headlines.

PROSPECTIVE PLANTING REPORT: Acres numbers came in mostly as the trade was expecting. Corn acres are currently projected at a whopping 95.3 million acres, which doesn’t paint a pretty balance sheet for corn this year given current demand struggles. This was higher than the average trade guess, but not quite the 96 million acres that had market rumors buzzing. Soybean acres came in at 83.5 million acres, which was right on the money for the average trade guess. Wheat was maybe the most interesting of the commodities, with acres coming in at 45.35 million, over a million acres lower than the average trade guess. This was due to large reductions for both winter and spring wheat acres, with all wheat plantings down 2% from a year ago. If realized, this would be the second lowest wheat plantings since record keeping began in 1919.

QUARTERLY STOCKS REPORT: No big surprises here either, with all three commodities coming in close to the average trade guess. Corn stocks are lower than this time last year, while soybean and wheat stocks are both higher. An interesting note on corn stocks is where they’re held, with Western Corn Belt bushels largely increased year-on-year and Eastern Corn Belt bushels lower.



WEATHER:  Today, we can expect showers and windy conditions, which are expected to continue into tomorrow. Cooler temperatures are ahead, with highs in the 50s and lows in the 20s expected over the weekend. Windy weather is also expected. However, by Sunday, we should see a turnaround, with temperatures rising to around the 60-degree range. Next week, it will feel more comfortable, with highs in the 70s to 80s and plenty of sunshine.

Trivia Answers

1.  Protection Factor

2. The summer solstice