Weekly Market Update 2/20/25

Here is your weekly market update from the Garden City Co-op Grain Origination Team.

Trivia

1. Which president gave the White House its name?

2. Which two presidents have only an initial for a middle name?

Answers at the bottom.

Market News

RUSSIA-UKRAINE PEACE DEAL LOOMING: The United States and Russia recently held their first meeting since the Ukraine War began, aiming to restore relations and seek a resolution. President Trump wants to end the war quickly, while President Putin is open to negotiations but insists on recognizing Russia's control over parts of Ukraine. Trump noted that Putin is interested in reaching a deal. U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth informed NATO allies that expecting Ukraine to join NATO as part of a negotiated settlement is unrealistic. He labeled Ukraine's goal of restoring its internationally recognized borders as an "illusionary goal." Russia has demanded that NATO revoke its 2008 promise of future membership for Ukraine and dismissed the idea of NATO forces acting as peacekeepers in Ukraine. However, the Kremlin acknowledged Ukraine's sovereign right to pursue European Union membership, stating it would not dictate Kyiv's decisions. Establishing a Western security guarantee for Ukraine remains complex, as Russian forces currently control nearly a fifth of Ukrainian territory. A key issue is how much territory Russia demands to retain. Putin has insisted that Ukraine withdraw its troops from four regions that Russia claims. In November, it was reported that Putin was willing to negotiate with Trump but would not make significant territorial concessions or allow Ukraine to pursue NATO membership. Trump and Putin are eager to meet soon, their first face-to-face encounter since 2021. "I would be glad to meet Donald," Putin stated on February 19.  "But we are in such a position that it is not enough to simply meet, just to have a cup of tea or coffee, sit down and talk about the future. We need to ensure that our teams prepare issues that are extremely important for both the United States and Russia, including – not only, but also on the Ukrainian track, in order to reach solutions acceptable to both sides."

SOUTH AMERICAN WEATHER: The market continues to keep a keen eye on weather in South America, as they continue harvesting their first corn crop and planting their second. The risk for corn is if the second corn crop runs into a late moisture issue. Estimates for the soybean crop have been trimmed by private groups, but are likely to still be an absolute monster crop. Argentina has been dry for the week, but does have chances for moisture in central and eastern parts of the country starting this weekend and extending into key growing areas next week. Brazil saw scattered precipitation over the last 24 hours and chances creep back into the 6-10 day maps for dry areas in the center-south.

EXPORT SALES: Report on Friday because of the holiday week.

EXPORT INSPECTIONS: Wheat inspections for exports totaled 9.2 million bushels this week, a decrease of 11.8 million bushels from last week’s values at 21.0 million bushels; staying on par with the rollercoaster described last week too. Of the total quantity of wheat bushels inspected for exports this week, 2.5 million bushels are set for exports to Mexico, 2.5 million bushels to South Korea, 1.0 million bushels to Japan, and 0.9 million bushels to Taiwan. Corn export inspections were reported at 63.4 million bushels this week. Total corn inspections this week climb even higher and are now 16.1 million bushels above the running 10-week average calculated by the USDA. A total of 26.5 million bushels of soybeans were inspected for exports this week. Of the total 26.5 million bushels inspected, 7.7 million bushels are destined for export markets in China, followed by 4.4 million bushels to Egypt, 3.5 million bushels to Mexico, and 2.1 million bushels to Germany. A total of only 0.1 million bushels of milo were inspected for exports, as of reported totals the week of 2/13/2025.

NOPA CRUSH: January soybean crush was lower than expected, but still set a January monthly record. NOPA reported 200.4 million bushels of soybeans were crushed last month, on the low end of estimates and below the average trade guess of 204.5 million bushels. This was down from the record 206.6 million bushels in December. However, this is still a ways above last January at 185.8 million bushels, which was the previous January record. Cumulative September-January crush is sitting at 977 million bushels, which is 52 million bushels (or 5%) ahead of last year’s pace and right in line with current USDA marketing year estimates. With tariffs still creating uncertainty about exports, it’s nice to see continued strong domestic soybean demand.


 

WEATHER: It’s been a brutally cold week in the area, but hopefully the end is soon in sight. An Extreme Cold Warning issued by the National Weather Service in Dodge City, KS remains in effect until 12pm this afternoon. Skies today are mostly sunny with a high temperature near 18°F and wind chill values as low as -8°F. Overnight, we’re looking at mostly cloudy skies with a low temperature around 0°F and wind chills as low as -11°F. Your Friday forecast brings with it a 20% chance of snow before noon, with mostly cloudy skies until the sun makes a short appearance later in the day. High temperatures are expected near 30°F and wind chill values remain as low as -11°F. Skies overnight are mostly clear with a low temperature around 9°F. The weekend forecast brings warmer temperatures into the area; Saturday and Sunday high temperatures range from the low-50s to the low-60s and overnight temperatures anticipated right around the low-20s to low-30s. Warmer temperatures continue into your Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday forecast, I’m sure a welcome sight for many after the last two weeks, with high temperatures of 70, 67, and 60°F, respectively. Overnight temperatures next week seem to hang out right around the low- to mid-30s with mostly clear skies.
 

Trivia Answers

1. Theodore Roosevelt

2. Harry S. Truman and Ulysses S. Grant