Weekly Market Update 2/27/25

Here is your weekly market update from the Garden City Co-op Grain Origination Team.

Trivia

1. What is the world’s most cultivated plant?

2. When was the movie Top Gun released?

Answers at the bottom.

Market News

AG OUTLOOK FORUM:  Today held through February -28 near Washington, DC, focusing on corn and soybean acreage and USDA's export outlook amid uncertainties about tariffs and trade. USDA's chief economist, Seth Meyer, notes a slightly more optimistic outlook for 2025 compared to 2024, suggesting that the agricultural sector may have hit its lowest point. While Meyer is hopeful for a rebound in corn demand, the USDA analysts will not factor potential tariffs into their forecasts, sticking to current policy actions. The initial acreage estimates for 2025 indicate a trend toward more corn acres. The USDA has issued initial yield estimates for the 2025 planting season. They project that corn will be planted on 94.0 million acres, with an expected 181.0 bushels per acre yield. An estimated 84.0 million acres will be planted for soybeans, yielding 52.5 bushels per acre. Wheat is projected to yield 50.1 bushels per acre, with 47.0 million acres anticipated for planting. It's important to note that these figures are preliminary and may change based on a survey of farmers, which will be released on March 31. This survey will also impact demand estimates.

TARIFFS: More tariff news out of the White House this morning, with President Trump stating that his proposed 25% tariffs on Mexican and Canadian goods will go into effect on March 4^th. He said that drugs are still coming across the borders at high and unacceptable levels, including a large amount of fentanyl. Also in the post on his Truth Social media site was an indication that China will likely be charged an additional 10% tariff on that date, which would be on top of the 10% that was levied on Chinese goods starting on February 4^th. Additionally, the White house has indicated an April deadline for reciprocal tariffs to match the import duties of other countries on American goods. As it stands, the market will keep a keen eye on headlines as they develop. Mexico has been the largest importer of U.S. corn this marketing year and Canada holds large stocks of the raw ingredients that are imported to make fertilizer. Lack of Chinese demand continues to deflate milo values and hamper soybeans too.

EXPORT INSPECTIONS: Wheat inspections for exports totaled 13.8 million bushels this week, an increase of 4.6 million bushels from last week’s value at 9.2 million bushels. Of the total quantity of wheat bushels inspected for exports this week, 3.9 million bushels are set for exports to Mexico, 2.5 million bushels to South Korea, and 1.2 million bushels to Japan; numbers remaining relatively steady compared to previous week’s final destinations. Corn export inspections were reported at 44.7 million bushels this week. Corn inspections this week falling below the running 10-week average calculated by the USDA, at 49.4 million bushels. A total of 31.6 million bushels of soybeans were inspected for exports this week. Of the total 31.6 million bushels inspected, 17.8 million bushels are destined for export markets in China, followed by 4.9 million bushels to Mexico, 32.1 million bushels to Egypt, and 1.8 million bushels to Italy. A total of only 0.2 million bushels of milo were inspected for exports, as of reported totals the week of 2/20/2025. Milo sits 5% below the year-to-date inspections relative to the seasonal pace needed to reach USDA target values.

EXPORT SALES: Export sales seen decreased volumes this week compared to values released at the end of last week. Old crop corn sales totaled 31.3 million bushels and N/C corn sales totaled 5.0 million bushels this week. Corn sales this week sit below the running 10-week average, now calculated at 50.1 million bushels. Corn remains 8% above the marketing year-to-date sales relative to the seasonal pace needed to reach USDA targets. Soybean sales totaled 15.1 million bushels this week, with N/C soybean sales reported at 0.1 million bushels. Old crop wheat sales totaled 9.9 million bushels sold and 0.2 million bushels of N/C sales were reported. A total of 0.9 million bushels of O/C milo was sold and no N/C milo sales were reported; now leaving us 36% below the marketing year-to-date sales relative to the seasonal pace needed to reach USDA targets.

WEATHER:After a couple weeks of frigid cold, warmer temperatures graced the area with their presence this week. The remainder of your Thursday forecast is sunny, with a high temperature around 65°F. Skies overnight are clear, with a low temperature around 29°F, and winds coming out of the southwest at 7 to 10 mph. Another sunny day on Friday, with a high temperature in the upper-60s and evening lows around the upper-20s. Moving into this weekend, Saturday is shaping up to be sunny with a high near 64°F with mostly clear skies overnight and a low temperature around 35°F. A 30% chance of scattered showers after noon is possible on Sunday, with a high temperature near 60°F. Mostly cloudy skies present themselves overnight with a low temperature around 37°F. Warmer temperatures continue once again into your Monday forecast with a high temperature of 67°F, before cooling off slightly Tuesday and Wednesday, high temperatures of 57 and 51°F, respectively. Another 40% chance of showers is possible on Tuesday.
 

Trivia Answers

1. Wheat

2. 1986