Weekly Market Update 2/6/25

Here is your weekly market update from the Garden City Co-op Grain Origination Team.

Trivia

1. What is the longest river in the world?

2. What kind of dog is Scooby-Doo?

Answers at the bottom.

Market News

Tariffs
Tariff talk is dominating grain headlines, with President Trump announcing on Saturday that he would be implementing a 25% tariff on imports from Mexico and Canada, as well as a 10% tariff on Chinese imports. This threw grain traders into  a weekend tailspin trying to digest market implications, particularly for retaliation grain exports to China and Mexico and fertilizer imports from Canada. Mexico and Canada both reached agreements with Trump to pause tariffs for 30 days as the countries crack down on drugs and migrants at the borders. China has struck back saying that they will impose retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods. They has also officially filed a World Trade Organization (WTO) complaint, labelling these tariffs as “protectionist” actions that violate WTO rules. This marks the formal beginning of a dispute process; however, it is unlikely to provide any relief for China, especially since no final decision has been reached in a similar 2020 case concerning Trump’s trade policies due to the ineffectiveness of the WTO appellate chamber. A key aspect of this dispute will be a meeting between President Trump and Xi, although no call has been scheduled yet. For now, the markets will continue to follow the headlines.

EXPORT SALES
Export sales seen mixed volume this week compared to last week’s values. Old crop corn sales totaled 58.2 million bushels and N/C corn sales totaled 2.0 million bushels this week. Corn sales this week sit above the running 10-week average, currently calculated at 46.8 million bushels. Corn sits 7% above the marketing year-to-date sales relative to the seasonal pace needed to reach USDA targets. Soybean sales totaled 14.2 million bushels this week. No N/C soybean sales were reported this week. Old crop wheat sales totaled 16.1 million bushels sold and 1.7 million bushels of N/C sales were reported. A total of 0.3 million bushels of O/C milo sales were reported and no N/C milo sales were reported; with the running 10-week average remaining at 0.4 million bushels.

EXPORT INSPECTIONS
Wheat inspections for exports totaled 9.3 million bushels this week, a decrease from last week’s values at 17.8 million bushels. Of the total quantity of wheat bushels inspected for exports, 2.0 million bushels are set for exports to the Philippines, 1.5 million bushels to South Korea, 1.4 million bushels to the Japan, and 1.0 million bushels to Mexico. Corn export inspections were reported at 49.3 million bushels. Total corn inspections this week are 4.6 million bushels above the running 10-week average calculated by the USDA. A total of 37.2 million bushels of soybeans were inspected for exports this week. Of the total 37.2 million bushels inspected, 12.8 million bushels are destined for export markets in China, followed by 4.6 million bushels to Germany, 4.1 million bushels to Mexico, and 2.1 million bushels to Egypt. A total of 2.9 million bushels of milo were inspected for exports, as of reported totals the week of 1/30/2025, with those bushels destined for export markets in China.

Weather

Sunny skies with a high temperature of 47°F for your Thursday forecast. Overnight skies are mostly clear, with low temperatures dipping below freezing at 21°F. Friday appears to be a bit warmer with mostly sunny skies and a high temperature of 50°F; winds blowing out of the south/southeast at 6 to 10 mph. Overnight, skies are looking partly cloudy with an evening low around 28°F; wind gusts as high as 31 mph are possible. The weekend forecast presents itself with mostly sunny and partly cloudy skies, Saturday and Sunday, with the high at 52 and 37°F, respectively. Evening temperatures dip to around 15°F throughout the overnight hours. The first half of next week brings us the chance of more snow and cold temperatures. Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday average a 25 to 30% chance of snow, with temperatures ranging from the low-20s to the upper 30s throughout the day. Overnight chances of snow average 45%, with low temperatures predicted around 6 and 11°F.

Trivia Answers

1. The Nile

2. Great Dane