Weekly Market Update 3/13/2025
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Here is your weekly market update from the Garden City Co-op Grain Origination Team.
Trivia
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How many states does the Appalachian Trail cross?
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What is the only food that can never go bad?
Answers at the bottom.
Market News
TRUCE DEAL PROPOSED: Ukraine announced accepting a U.S. proposal for a 30-day truce in the ongoing war with Russia this week. The announcement followed discussions in Saudi Arabia, where U.S. National Security Advisor Mike Waltz confirmed that the proposal would be presented to Russia for approval. President Trump also agreed to lift the U.S. freeze on Ukraine's military aid and intelligence support. The U.S. and Ukraine also talked about potential prisoner swaps during the truce. Waltz noted that concrete steps were discussed to secure Ukraine's long-term security and end the fighting. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio highlighted efforts to understand Ukraine's concessions for a potential peace deal, stating, “We made an offer,” which Ukraine accepted.
EXPORT INSPECTIONS: Wheat inspections totaled 7.9 million bushels this week, falling below trade estimates and decreased comparatively to the volume inspected last week. Of the total quantity of wheat bushels inspected for exports, final shipment destinations include Mexico, Taiwan, and the Philippines. Corn was reported at 71.6 million bushels this week; exceeding USDA trade estimates and having the highest volume when compared to preceding weeks. A total of 31.0 million bushels of soybeans were inspected this week with shipment destinations of China, German, Egypt, and Mexico. Milo inspections saw 2.1 million bushels this week compared to 0.7 million bushels the week prior.
EXPORT SALES: Old crop corn export sales totaled 38.1 million bushels this morning, falling in the lower half of USDA trade estimates this week. Sales this week sit below the running 10-week average, however export volume is improved comparatively to last week’s values. Soybean sales totaled 27.6 million bushels this week, exceeding the upper end of estimates. New crop soybean sales were reported at 1.6 million bushels this morning. Wheat sales totaled 28.8 million bushels in sales this morning, exceeding USDA trade estimates and showing a fairly significant improvement in volume compared to weeks previous. A total of 3.0 million bushels of N/C wheat sales were reported this morning. Milo sales totaled 1.3 million bushels this week, leaving us above the running 10-week average and 18% below the marketing year-to-date sales relative to the seasonal pace needed to reach USDA targets.
MARCH WASDE RECAP: USDA did what USDA loves to do… kick the can down the road. Overall, both US and world balance sheets were left without and material changes. This made for limited market action and has the trade back to watching tariff headlines and weather as we approach planting season.
CORN: US balance sheets were left unchanged, despite a trade expectation that we might see an increase to exports given that exports to-date are 7% ahead of the pace needed to hit the current estimate. Carryout remains steady at 1.540 billion bushels – a 10.2% carryout-to-use ratio. If exports are adjusted down the line, it will definitely create volatility with an already tight balance sheet. Global carryout was down slightly to 288.94 MMT, with South American production numbers left unchanged. SOYBEANS: Another punt by USDA. US balance sheet was left untouched, albeit with some shifts in demand from seed to residual. Carryout stays at 380 million bushels. Global carryout was down 3MMT to 121.41 MMT, with production left unchanged and crush increased in Argentina and China. WHEAT: Wheat took a little heat but seems to have bounced back post-report. US carryout was increased by 25 million bushels to 819 million bushels, with a 15 million bushel reduction to exports and a 10 million bushel increase to imports. Global ending stocks rose by 2.5 MMT, as production increased by about 3.5 MMT. Australian production was raised 2.1 MMT, with small gains in Argentina, Russia, and Ukraine too. MILO: Milo saw the biggest changes of all grains, with USDA reducing exports by 70 million bushels to 100 million bushels – a warranted change given today’s trade landscape. U,S, carryout is increased by 20 million bushels to 52 million, a 16.0% carryout-to-use ratio. Interestingly, USDA raised milo feed demand by 50 million bushels, which would be a record. To be honest, today that feels like USDA padding the demand side of the balance sheet.
WEATHER: The National Weather Service in Dodge City, KS has issued a Red Flag Warning forecasting dangerous fire weather conditions throughout the day Thursday, followed by a High Wind Watch to follow on Friday. Northwest winds of 35 to 45 mph are expected with gusts up to 65 mph possible. Mostly sunny skies are predicted again throughout the next 7-day forecast with high temperatures anticipated in the low-60s, before even venturing into the low-80s on Monday. A 30% chance of showers is possible after noon on Friday, followed by a 20% chance of rain and snow showers during the overnight hours on Tuesday before increasing to a 30% chance on Wednesday.
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Trivia Answers
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14
- Honey