Weekly Market Update 3/20/2025
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Here is your weekly market update from the Garden City Co-op Grain Origination Team.
Trivia
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Which school won the first NCAA Men’s Basketball Championship?
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What state has produced the most NCAA Men’s Basketball Championship-winning teams?
Answers at the bottom.
Market News
BLACK SEA: Russia and Ukraine traded strikes with each other last night, despite the Trump administration’s work to try and get the two sides to agree on a partial cease-fire. President Trump spoke with both Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky this week, and both said they were willing to meet separately with U.S. officials in Saudi Arabia early next week. However, Russia launched a drone attack on civilian areas and damaged a Ukrainian hospital last night, while Ukraine attacked a Russian airbase. This comes amid news that Russia could be limiting wheat exports due to tight stocks and dryness across key growing regions. Right now, it’s possible that even if a ceasefire was reached, it may not majorly affect wheat export markets in the near-term with possible limited Russian exports and low stocks in Ukraine. However, the market will continue to keep a keen eye on headlines and Black Sea weather as we get further into the growing season.
INTEREST MARKET UPDATE: The Federal Reserve has decided to keep the Federal Funds target range at 4.25% to 4.50%, with the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) in the 4.30%-4.35% range, reflecting an 11-1 vote. This decision aligns with market expectations amid increased economic uncertainty due to tariffs. Forecasts suggest a stagflation scenario, with higher inflation and unemployment alongside lower growth. Although two rate cuts are possible, opinions among committee members vary. Powell pointed out the significant uncertainty ahead. The Fed's balance sheet reduction will conclude next month, marking nearly three years of liquidity normalization post-COVID-19. The reasoning for potential rate cuts has shifted; they are now more likely to occur in response to slower economic growth or rising unemployment influenced by tariffs. What was once seen as a positive sign has turned into a warning: cuts may only happen if the economy starts to decline.
EXPORT INSPECTIONS: Wheat inspections totaled 18.1 million bushels this week, sitting within trade estimates and increased comparatively to the volume inspected last week. Of the total quantity of wheat bushels inspected for exports, final shipment destinations include South Korea, Japan, and Mexico. Corn was reported at 65.3 million bushels this week; remaining on track with USDA trade estimates and volumes remain steady when compared to previous weeks volumes. A total of 23.8 million bushels of soybeans were inspected this week with shipment destinations of China and Mexico. Milo inspections saw 0.5 million bushels this week compared to the 2.1 million bushels the week prior.
EXPORT SALES: A much-anticipated week for export sales volumes – O/C corn export sales totaled 58.9 million bushels this morning, sitting in the upper half of USDA trade estimates this week. Sales this week exceed the running 10-week average, with Japan taking the largest portion of this week’s corn volume. Soybean sales totaled 13.0 million bushels this week, falling below USDA trade estimates, with no N/C soybean sales report this morning. Wheat sales totaled -9.1 million bushels this morning because of sale contract cancellations. A total of 18.0 million bushels of N/C wheat sales were reported this morning. Milo sales totaled 1.1 million bushels this week, leaving us 21% below the marketing year-to-date sales relative to the seasonal pace needed to reach USDA targets.
WEATHER: After a few wild days of weather and a blizzard system that rocked most of the area on Wednesday, a mild forecast for the remainder of the week is a welcome site for many. Increasing cloud coverage is expected throughout the day today with a high temperature in the low-60s. Mostly sunny skies are predicted throughout the next 7-day forecast with high temperatures anticipated in the low-60s to upper-70s later in the week. Winds are expected to range from 6 to 22mph the remainder of the week and into this weekend. No remaining chances of precipitation are forecasted in the next 7- to 10-day forecast.
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Trivia Answers
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Oregon
- California