Weekly Market Update 3/27/2025

Here is your weekly market update from the Garden City Co-op Grain Origination Team.

Trivia

1. Where were the Declaration of Independence, the Constitution, and the Bill of Rights stored during World War II?

2. When did Facebook first launch?

Answers at the bottom.

Market News
 

BRAZIL CORN NEWS: Recently, Brazil has undergone some changes in its corn market. Currently, only a small quantity of corn has been purchased by Brazil from the U.S, which is not enough to trigger a flash sale or create bullish sentiment. However, it is important to note that, amid rising inflation risks, corn prices in Brazil have surpassed rice prices due to weather concerns affecting their second corn crop. Just yesterday, in the Campinas region, corn prices reached over 90 reais (approximately $15.80) per 60-kg bag, marking the highest level in three years. This tight supply situation could have future implications for the global market. Additionally, weeks ago, when U.S. President Donald Trump announced plans to raise import tariffs, a White House fact sheet cited Brazil's ethanol tariffs as an example of unfair trade practices. In response, Brazil's Energy and Mining Minister, Alexandre Silveira, called a potential U.S. tariff on Brazilian ethanol unreasonable, emphasizing that the two countries have historically negotiated their ethanol and sugar trade together. Brazil is one of the world’s largest sugar producers, with most of its ethanol derived from sugarcane, while U.S. ethanol is primarily made from corn. Brazilian officials frequently argue that the tariffs imposed by the U.S. on sugar imports, outside of preferential quotas, are excessively high, exceeding Brazil's tariffs on ethanol imports. Tariffs are expected to take effect at the start of April.

EXPORT INSPECTIONS: Wheat inspections totaled 17.8 million bushels this week, exceeding trade estimates and falling 0.4 million bushels behind the volume inspected last week. Of the total quantity of wheat bushels inspected for exports, final shipment destinations include the Philippines, Mexico, South Korea, and Taiwan. Corn was reported at 57.6 million bushels this week; remaining on track with USDA trade estimates and volumes are generally decreased when compared to previous weeks’ volumes. A total of 30.2 million bushels of soybeans were inspected this week with shipment destinations of China, Egypt, Mexico, and Germany. No milo inspections were reported this week.

EXPORT SALES: Old crop corn export sales totaled 40.9 million bushels this morning, on par with USDA trade estimates for the week. Sales this week fall below the running 10-week average, with Japan once again taking the largest portion of this week’s volume, painting the same picture as last week. Soybean sales totaled 12.4 million bushels this week, falling in line with USDA trade estimates, with no N/C soybean sales reported. Wheat sales totaled 3.7 million bushels this morning, with 0.4 million bushels of N/C wheat sales reported. Milo sales totaled 0.4 million bushels this week, leaving us unchanged at 21% below the marketing year-to-date sales relative to the seasonal pace needed to reach USDA targets.

PROSPECTIVE PLANTINGS AND QUARTERLY STOCKS REPORT: USDA is slated to release two major reports this coming Monday, March 31^st, at 11:00AM. The March Prospective Planting, or Planting Intentions Report, is considered to one of the key reports as we head into the growing season and can set the tone for markets until we get the updated acreage number in the June Report. Given current market prices, expectations are for higher corn acres and lower soybean acres. 2025 corn acres are estimated at an average of 94.4 million acres, which would be an almost 4 million acre increase from last year, while the average estimate for soybean acres is sitting at 83.7 million acres pre-report. This would be almost 4 million acres lower than last year. As always, expect volatility, especially if the USDA prints any surprises. Monday will also bring the March 1 Quarterly Grain Stocks Report. Corn stocks are estimated to be tighter than this time last year, with lower production in 2024/25 and strong export demand in the first quarter of 2025. Soybean and wheat stocks are both estimated to be slightly higher than last year due to poor export demand. As always, reach out to the Grain Team if you’d like to get any orders working pre-report.



 WEATHER: Mostly sunny skies are expected throughout the day today, with a south/southwest wind at 15 to 20 mph, high temperatures today in the upper-80s. Mostly sunny skies are predicted throughout the next 7-day forecast with temperatures anticipated in the low-60s to upper-80. It is western KS; we’re no stranger to the wind; winds are expected to range from 11 to 22 mph for the remainder of the week and into this weekend. Saturday night into Sunday morning looks like a 30% chance of showers – decreasing to a 20% chance throughout the day on Sunday. The first half of next week appears to be dry so far, before another 20% chance of rain comes into the forecast Tuesday evening.

Trivia Answers

1. Fort Know

2. 2004