Weekly Market Update 3/6/2025

Here is your weekly market update from the Garden City Co-op Grain Origination Team.

Trivia

1. The term “Grand Prix” was first used in a motor race in which country?
    

2. What is the only planet in our solar system to rotate clockwise on its axis?
    

Answers at the bottom.

Market News

TARIFF UPDATE: Markets have been tanking in the last week, in no small part due to tariffs that went into effect at midnight on March 4^th. Imports from Canada and Mexico will be imposed at a 25% tariff, while Chinese imports are subject to a 20% tariff. In response, Canada has announced that they will impose a 25% tariff on U.S. imports, China announced tariffs up to 15% on American imports including major agricultural products, and Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum has said that Mexico will respond with retaliatory tariffs as well. All three countries pose their own significance to our industry from both a supply and demand perspective.

In this marketing year, Mexico has been the #1 buyer of U.S. corn and wheat imports – a significant portion of GCC wheat has found its way into Mexican markets. Tariffs will certainly put a damper on that demand. We all know China is the largest global importer of milo by a long shot. U.S. milo exports are virtually non-existent and the increase in costs through tariffs makes it that much less likely that milo finds its way from southwest Kansas into China. As a result, our local crop is moving into limited local ethanol and feed markets – low demand has really put the pressure on posted elevator basis. On the supply side, Canada holds large supplies of the raw ingredients to make fertilizer and all three countries produce machinery and parts that are important to U.S. farmers. Right now, tariffs are certainly pressuring the prices of commodities from both a futures and basis perspective, and in all likelihood will increase the cost of goods that farmers need.

Tariff headlines continue to change by the day, and the market will keep a keen eye on each new development.

EXPORT INSPECTIONS: Inspected corn bushels totaled 53.2 million, exceeding the prior week's total. The top three destinations for shipments were Mexico, Japan, and Colombia. Soybeans reported 25.5 million bushels for the current week, below the previous week but still at the pace the USDA needs. China has the largest shipment at 12.9 million bushels; however, it was down from 18.0 million the week before. Wheat locked in 14.3 million bushels unchanged VS last week and stayed between estimates. Milo saw 0.6 million shipped vs 0.2 million LW.

EXPORT SALES: Corn export sales reported this morning were decent, landing in the middle of estimates with 35.8 million bushels. This is an improvement compared to last week and is close to historical averages. Japan and Mexico were the top two buyers this week, with both countries making purchases of some new crop as well. Wheat sales reached 339k MT last week, falling within the estimated range and showing a slight week-on-week improvement. Mexico was the top buyer, purchasing all classes of wheat and 30k MT of HRW for the 2025/26 season. Soy, complex we saw 13.0 mil for beans, 236.6 for meal & 54.8 mil for oil. Bean oil was the best performer in export sales, exceeding the highest estimate, while meal and beans remained within range this morning. Deliveries for beans, meal, and oil are still circulating today. Milo had 300,000 in sales during the current week & below the 10-week average.

SOYBEAN OIL: Strong sales in February have been notable. A recent flash sale of 20,000 metric tons has increased total commitments to 1.607 billion pounds, slightly surpassing the current USDA estimate of 1.6 billion pounds. This projection has undergone multiple revisions, initially set at 600 million pounds. The unusual discount of soybean oil compared to palm oil complicates forecasts, with soybean oil futures reaching a $221 per metric ton discount. While market adjustments temporarily favored soybean oil, it again traded at a $50/mt discount to palm oil by the end of February, revitalizing export interest. Ongoing selloffs from tariff threats and geopolitical tensions could continue to weaken soybean oil prices. However, the USDA's export projection is expected to rise to 1.675 billion pounds for 2025-26, though overall soybean export potential remains uncertain due to inadequate supplies. Ending stocks are projected around 1.5 billion pounds for 2024-25 and 2025-26, leaving little room for reduction despite record monthly soybean crushes.

WEATHER:What wild weather we’ve had in the last week – thank goodness we didn’t blow away in Tuesday’s wind storm! Sunny and breezy looks to be the name of the game for the foreseeable future, with windspeeds back up above 20mph at the end of next week and into the weekend.  Temperatures remain mild in the coming days, with highs from the 50s and even touching 80 on Monday. Chances for precipitation are scarce in the 10-day forecast.
 

Trivia Answers

1. France 

2. Venus